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Have an Awesome Week All

First off, with how little snow we’ve had this season, I think I’m going to be making alterations to my plan as we go. The idea was to have 5 months of forecasting options for 10 PBR forecasts, December through April. December was a bust, and I can’t imagine April being that much better. So now I’m going to try to squeeze in the remaining forecasts as quickly as possible. That way I can get most, if not all, of the forecasts done by the end of March. This will be forecast 5, so I have about a month and a half to get 4 or 5 more forecasts done. As a result, I’ll probably end up doing a few “little or no snowfall” forecasts…including this one.

Finally, for those of you who have just started coming to the site, I figured I’d explain just what the PBR forecasts are. Point Blank Range forecasts are predictions made generally 1-3 days in advance. All forecasts made are with complete certainty, no waffle words such as “chance of” or “likely”…and, I keep track of how the forecasts have fared. There are 3 scoring ranges with any PBR forecast: Bull’s Eye (2 points), On Target (1 point) and Complete Miss (0 points). On Target is more or less what I anticipate to happen, while a Bull’s Eye is like a bonus. The goal for the end of the season is to average “On Target”, or 1.00 when this and the Shot In The Dark forecast results are combined. SITD forecasts are like PBRs, except done monthly and double points.

With that out of the way, let’s get into how the last forecast fared. That called for a snowfall totals to range between 1-6 inches for the 11th and 12th. If all five GSB cities were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. On Target was a majority of the GSB cities in range. Here are the two day totals:

Albany: 0.2
Binghamton: 3.3
Buffalo: 4.0
Rochester: 15.3
Syracuse: 3.9

Rochester blew the forecast away, due to 10.3 inches falling on Sunday. Amazingly enough, that was not a record for the date. That belongs to 1910, in which 16 inches fell. Despite this, and Albany going under an inch, the forecast still managed to fall in the On Target category.

As mentioned up top, this is a “little snow” forecast. With the snow event well to the south, I am not anticipating much snowfall for the GSB cities this weekend.

Bull’s Eye All GSB cities will have less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend.
Complete Miss Any other result.

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Syracuse who????  Rochester has plowed past Syracuse with the latest update from the National Weather Service.  So far today the Rock has picked up 10.1 inches of snow blowing away the competition for the day.  Binghamton managed to move back into 3rd place but we will see if that lasts long.  I’ll get an update in tomorrow morning when all of the totals for today are up to date.  Good call Dave and Charles and Way To Go Rochester!!!!

She contacted me and a couple others to see if I had any ideas as to where she should begin and said she was going to head toward Binghamton.  So I think and then think some more.  Here I am just outside of a city that is suppose to be one of, if not the snowiest Big city in the country and I couldn’t say come to Syracuse we have tons of the white fluffy gold just laying around.  No, I had to say to Snowless that maybe Fulton or the Tug Hill region may have some.  Yes, it was hard to say Fulton and even embarrassing but I said it. I figured with the snow they got last weekend that there still had to be some leftovers laying around somewhere to the north of Da’Cuse.

In the mean time I noticed that there was a little snow pile in one of the parking lots by my house.  I thought if worst comes to worst I could always take Snowless to one of the bigger parking lots in Syracuse like at one of the malls.  I put a call into Sean Kirst to see if he knew of any snow or even snow banks around in the Syracuse area or around the Clinton Square ice rink.  He told me to hold on while he looked out the window for a look at the ice rink.  I was happy to hear Sean say that there was a small snow pile right next to the rink.  So that was plan A for me but I had to run it by Snowless to see if that was something she could use.  She said she would meet me on Tuesday morning and we would drive around and check it out and then head up to Fulton for some real snow on the ground.

I’m still shaking my head for the fact that here it is a third of the way into February and in all of the Golden Snowball cities no Freaking snow to show off   Anyways, Snowless came to my house around noon and off we went on the quest to find snow and build a snowman.  Snowless (Andrea) did write a cool and fun article about her search for snow and she tells the story a lot better than I can.  You can check out the article Here at the Washington Post.

Thanks for a fun day Andrea and if there is a next time I’ll teach ya how to build a snowman ;)

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It’s finally snowing again in the Golden Snowball cities and there was some sliding around in the line-up.  Rochester jumped into 2nd place and Buffalo managed to move into 3rd dropping Binghamton all the way down to 4th place.  Not a whole lot of snow but from what we have seen so far this winter season it’s enough to keep this contest close and the Golden Snowball trophy up for grabs still.

Yesterdays snow stats show:

Albany –  0.2
Syracuse - 0.6
Binghamton –  0.9
Buffalo – 3.5
Rochester – 5.0 inches of snow.

Rochester was the big winner but it’s still snowing in some of the cities and should be interesting to see which city gets the most through tonight and if they can overtake Syracuse for the top spot on the snow hill.  Updates as they come in.

Have a great week all

The last PBR forecast called for snow of 1-5 inches from January 28th to the 29th. If all five are in range, it’s a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 in range is On Target. Here’s how they fared:

Albany: 0.0
Binghamton: 1.4
Buffalo: 5.3
Rochester: 4.8
Syracuse: 0.7

Only Binghamton and Rochester were in range, so that’s a Complete Miss. Buffalo and Syracuse were just off the thresholds, so this may be one of the better missed forecasts I’ve had. But a miss is still a miss, no matter how close or far it is.

That brings the average down a little. I still have 6 PBRs and 2 SITDs to get done, so there is about half left to go. But looking at the results, I’m going to have to do a little better on these PBRs to have a chance!

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

We have nothing on the ground here in Syracuse and from what I’ve heard Binghamton is the same way.  Most likely Buffalo, Rochester and Albany are showing just grass too.  I mentioned to her that Fulton probably has some snow on the ground from the 30+ inches they received about a week ago or at least some decent size snow piles.

The question is, do you have snow on the ground where you live right now?  Does the Tug Hill still have a lot  of snow?  Remember she is coming from DC so the closer to DC the snow is the better rather than Andrea having to drive all the way to Fulton.  If you do have snow on the ground can you post in the comments section and let us know where it is.

This has to be one of my most embarrassing posts ever.  Living in the Syracuse area and I have to ask if there is any snow out there   Ok enough said and thanks for any feedback you can give us.

Have a Great Super Bolw Sunday and think of these numbers 3-0 & 8-4.  Go Giants!!!

Fore January, I was expecting below average snowfall. If all 5 cities were below average, that would be a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 would be On Target. Below are the totals with average in parenthesis.

Albany: 7.5 (17.6)
Binghamton: 17.2 (22.2)
Buffalo: 20.8 (25.3)
Rochester: 19.9 (28.2)
Syracuse: 24.6 (34.0)

All five were below average, Bull’s Eye! Let’s check the standings. Remember that with the SITD forecasts, a Bull’s Eye is worth 4 points.

Still not at the 1.00 goal, but I’m getting there. I’m pretty sure the latest PBR was a Complete Miss, but the next Point Blank Range edition will show that result. Either way, I’m doing a bit better now than I was at the last forecast update.

With that out of the way, time for the February outlook, and for what I believe is a first for me, it’s basically a repeat of last month! Hey, if it keeps working, keep using it, right?

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 is 10 inches or more below average, snowfall for February.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for February.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great February everyone!

Albany: 7.5
Binghamton: 17.2
Buffalo: 20.8
Rochester: 19.9
Syracuse: 24.6

The big winner was Syracuse with just over 2 feet of snow! Um…what the heck kind of January was that? All of the GSB cities were below their average for the month! Wow. Let’s go a little bit deeper than just snowfall and check the precipitation stats.

Albany: 2.26
Binghamton: 3.04
Buffalo: 4.42
Rochester: 3.32
Syracuse: 3.88

For comparison sake, here is each city’s average precipitation for January:

Albany: 2.59
Binghamton: 2.45
Buffalo: 3.18
Rochester: 2.41
Syracuse: 2.50

Four of the GSB cities had above average precipitation, and Albany was pretty close to average. It just didn’t fall as snow. A bit colder weather (ok, A LOT MORE colder weather), and we may have been talking about some decent snowfall numbers for the month.

Either way, it’s been a very snowless season so far. But I can’t shake the feeling that will change at some point this season. I mean, it can’t be like this the whole season…can it?

Hey, have a great weekend everyone! Enjoy the Super Bowl!

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Ahhh, the clean, fresh look of a new snowfall.  Something we haven’t been seeing much of this season.  All of the cities including Albany are still in the snow race.  I still have a hard time saying Albany still has a shot at winning this late in the season.  All as it will take is a nice nor’easter or two that hangs to the east of Syracuse and they are golden

Buffalo set a date record with 4.4 inches of snow breaking the old record from 1909 of 4.3 inches of snow.  Rochester picked up 4.8 inches yesterday while Syracuse, Binghamton and Albany are showing little or no snow for yesterday but most of their snow if any came during the overnight which isn’t being reported yet.  Syracuse should have several more inches to add to their totals come the next NOAA update and I’m not quite sure about Albany and Bingo.

Our snow contest got a mention in the Wall Street Journal today which is pretty cool IMO.  Meteorologist Eric Holthaus writes some weather articles for the WSJ and gave us a mention.  Thanks Eric   You can check it out at http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/01/30/weather-journal-what-even-happened-to-winter/

I’ll update the snow totals when NOAA puts them up later this evening.  Have a Great Monday All

That forecast was for the 12th and 13th, with anticipated accumulations being 1-6 inches. If all five GSB cities were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 in range would end up being On Target.

Here’s how much snow each city had as a 2 day total:

Albany: 2.6
Binghamton: 5.5
Buffalo: 6.4
Rochester: 5.5
Syracuse: 12.1

Buffalo was just over while Syracuse was was the big winner of the two days. The other three ended up in range, so it’s On Target.

I’m finally on the board, but still a ways away from the 1.00 average. I could really use a Bull’s Eye, so here it goes!

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone!