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All posts for the month December, 2010

Introducing this year’s forecasting features

Posted by Stephen on December 29, 2010
Posted in: forecasts.

Visitors on the Golden Snow Globe may recall my forecasting bits from last season. The basic idea was to make 2 forecasts in each post: one for somewhere in New York state and one for somewhere else in the country. There were 20 posts, or 40 forecasts, in all. The goal was to have an accuracy of 90% or better. The feature was called The Golden SnowCast. I’ve worked on some tweaks, and coming soon, I’ll begin forecasting once again.

The first change is that I’ll be doing two types of forecasting, long range and short range, instead of just one like last year. Short range basically follows the same format as last year’s Golden SnowCast: I’ll forecast for a few days away, usually weekends. The long range forecast will involve a season outlook (basically, the end of March) and predictions for January, February and March.

Secondly, the verification system has been changed. Last year, it was either right or wrong, no in between. This year, I’m introducing a target based system. Each forecast will have three different categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss. A Bull’s Eye is worth 2 points, On Target is worth 1 and a Complete Miss is worth 0. The goal will be to be at 1.00 or better by season’s end.

Third, instead of calling the zones New York State and World, they are now Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe. Last year, most of the NYS forecasts involved the GSB cities, and the World forecasts mostly involved other U.S. cities, so this is just a minor change really. Each zone’s forecast will be posted on the respective sites.

Finally, I’ll be taking suggestions into account when making the forecasts. Last year, we had a feature called Stump the Weather Chump. While that will stay this year, I figure we can expand on that this year. Basically, if a suggestion fits into the forecasting features, I’ll try to use it there. If not, it’ll be used as a Stump the Weather Chump challenge.

I’m sure all of this will make more sense as the forecasting begins. I plan on doing a season outlook on New Year’s Eve, and the January look on New Year’s Day. The first weekend forecast will be next week.

Happy Holidays everyone!

Rochester Breaks December Monthly Snowfall Record

Posted by The Snowman on December 27, 2010
Posted in: rochester snow, rochester snow record.

Just did a full update at the Golden Snow Globe

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According to NOAA, the national weather service out of Buffalo, Rochester broke the all time record for most snowfall for any December. Way to go Rochester. To me the certain monthly records rank third and are hard to break which makes it pretty cool IMO.

The hardest record would be the record for most snow in a season followed by the most snow recorded ever in any given month and then what both Rochester and Syracuse did this month. The most snowfall in a certain month… Congrats Rochester!!!!!

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RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
0840 AM EST MON DEC 27 2010

…RECORD DECEMBER MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT ROCHESTER NY…

AT THE ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 0.2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
FELL SUNDAY DECEMBER 26TH. WITH THIS SNOW A NEW MARK FOR SNOWIEST
DECEMBER ON RECORD HAS BEEN SET. TOTAL TO DATE FOR MONTHLY SNOW IN
ROCHESTER NOW STANDS AT 46.4 INCHES. THE OLD RECORD OF 46.2 INCHES
WAS SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 2008. RECORDS FOR SNOWFALL GO BACK TO
1884-1885 FOR ROCHESTER, NY.

Have a Great Day All! I’m off to try and update some of the national snowy city stats with that Nor’Easter winding down 😉

Top 3 Snowiest Days for GSB Cities

Posted by Stephen on December 19, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized.

With Syracuse having taken over the updates on the site (and deservedly so), I figured it was about time to shift the focus off of the current contest, especially since it’s been a fairly calm period for the GSB cities. There was a pretty good discussion on the previous update about the snowiest days ever recorded in Syracuse. That discussion is the inspiration for this post, the top three snowiest days for each of the GSB cities.

Albany:
1. 30.4 (March 12, 1888)
2. 23.5 (February 14, 1914)
3. 22.0 (March 13, 1993)

Binghamton:
1. 21.0 (February 19, 1972)
2. 18.6 (March 13, 1993)
3. 18.4 (January 13, 1964)

Buffalo:
1. 33.9 (December 10, 1995)
2. 26.2 (December 28, 2001)
3. 24.9 (November 20, 2000)

Rochester:
1. 23.0 (January 3, 1996)
2. 22.3 (March 4, 1999)
3. 18.4 (March 6, 1999 and February 14, 1960)

Syracuse:
1. 22.1 (March 13, 1993)
2. 22.0 (January 31, 1966)
3. 20.8 (February 4, 1961)

Syracuse Breaks December Monthly Snowfall Record

Posted by Stephen on December 16, 2010
Posted in: snow totals, syracuse record snow.

It’s official, Syracuse just had the snowiest month of December on record. Rochester is next. Just put out by NOAA!

AS OF 1250 PM…70.8 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN FOR THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER AT THE SYRACUSE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD
DECEMBER MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD OF 70.3 INCHES THAT WAS SET IN
DECEMBER 2000.

SINCE THERE ARE TWO MORE WEEKS LEFT IN DECEMBER…THE ALL-TIME
MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR SYRACUSE WILL BE CHALLENGED.

THE TOP 5 MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR THE SYRACUSE AIRPORT ARE AS
FOLLOWS:

1. 78.1 INCHES JANUARY 2004
2. 72.6 INCHES FEBRUARY 1958
3. 72.2 INCHES JANUARY 1978
4. 71.0 INCHES JANUARY 1966
5. 70.8 INCHES DECEMBER 1ST-17TH, 2010

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On Wednesday, 11.9 inches fell at the Syracuse airport, over double the previous record for the day: 5.4 set way back in 1951.

Syracuse’s snowiest December on record was in 2000 with 70.3 inches. So far this month, the city has 69.5, so it really is not a matter of if the record will be broken, it’s a matter of by how much.

In terms of snowfall before the official start of Winter, Syracuse has already broken that record too. The old one was set in 1995 at 63.5. Currently, Syracuse stands at 70.3 with a few days remaining before Winter officially begins.

There is some good news for those of you in the area who are tired of shoveling or driving in the snow. Snowfall is expected to be minimal for the next few days.

Rochester and Syracuse Sliding Toward December Snow Records

Posted by The Snowman on December 15, 2010
Posted in: december snow records, rochester record snow, syracuse record snow.

12/16 11:30 am – I just got through shoveling about 5 inches of snow, 2 inches of it was probably already reported leaving about 3 more inches so no doubt Syracuse has to be right around the all time record snowfall for December. Quiet right now though. Anything new going on in Rochester?

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Updated 10:45 PM – NOAA just put out some new stats for Syracuse. They are showing 64.9 inches of snow for December making this the second snowiest December on record. The old record was 64.6 set in 1989. They now need another 5.5 inches for this to be the snowiest December on record.

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Both Rochester and Syracuse are closing in on their all time snowiest Decembers on record. I’ll have to look around more to see what Binghamton’s record is. Monthly snow records have always impressed me since I took over as the stat keeper of the Golden Snowball contest. I think for the fact that they are pretty hard to break and everything has to fall into place just right.

Well that seems to be happening right now for Syracuse and Rochester. There is no doubt in my mind that Rochester will break their December snowfall totals. Rochester’s December snowfall totals as of 4:PM today, 12/15 were at 43.0 inches. Leaving them just another 3.3 inches of snow left to break the old record set in 2008 according to The Democrat and Chronicle out of Rochester. Will tomorrow be the day for The Rock???

As for Syracuse they are sitting at 59.4 inches as of 5 PM today 12/15 and at least another 3 inches has fallen since. Right now according to Meteorologist Peter Hall at CnyCentral.com the record for December snowfall is 70.3 dating back to 2000. Right now Syracuse has had their 3rd snowiest December and most likely come morning or later tonight will be at the 2nd snowiest Dec. on record if the stats are right. Again, no doubt in my mind Syracuse will break the record. Stay Tuned and have a great night 🙂

Rochester Melts Away Some of Syracuse’s Lead

Posted by The Snowman on December 14, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized.

Rochester knocked a couple more inches off Syracuse’s lead yesterday. Syracuse hasn’t gotten anything near what was expected and I think the same is happening to Buffalo. The snow is all around the area just not where we need it to be. Where it gets measured 🙁 Here are the final snow stats for yesterday, 12/14.

Rochester – 7.3
Buffalo – 5.5
Syracuse – 5.0
Albany – 1.6
Binghamton – 1.3

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12/15 1:00 AM – Here is another update for this second round. Syracuse is showing another 4 inches give or take But… That was as of about 10 PM. Rochester and Buffalo are only showing as of about 4 PM. Lets see what the stats show come the next update :)) Good Night All!

7:00 PM – Just did a quick update. Only Rochester and Buffalo reported. Buffalo added 5.5 inches so far today and Rochester added another 6.8 to their snow totals.

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I just did a full update at www.goldensnowglobe.com. The top 10 is starting to tighten up a bit :))

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All of the snow stats should be up to date as far as yesterdays totals go. Rochester managed to melt away about 5 inches of snow from Syracuse’s lead. Buffalo gained a little over 2 inches on Da Cause. Both Syracuse and Bingo only picked up about an inch and a half of the white fluffy stuff. Hey and even Albany picked up a little :))

I have a feeling my niece Kim is probably mad at me today because I told her that she may have a snow day either today or tomorrow or both. Well that didn’t pan out for today but maybe the kids will get lucky tomorrow. It should be interesting once some of the overnight and today’s totals come out. Not much going on in Syracuse right now so this is a good chance for the other cities to melt away some of their lead. Below are what was reported for Yesterday.

Rochester – 6.3
Buffalo – 3.7
Binghamton – 1.6
Syracuse – 1.4
Albany – 1.1

Have a Super Day All!