Got a bit behind where I wanted the updates to be, but here it is now. In this update, I’ll be looking back at the March results, and see where the April outlook stands. It’s about 3 weeks before the SITD Wrap Up, in which the April results will be final, as well as the forecast made at the beginning of the season. The goal is 1.00, when both Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe are combined.

The March forecast involved snowfall for the month compared to the historical average. Below are the snowfall totals for the five cities, with their respective averages in parenthesis.

Albany: 8.8 (10.9)
Binghamton: 25.9 (14.2)
Buffalo: 13.3 (12.4)
Rochester: 15.1 (16.6)
Syracuse: 18.5 (18.8)

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities will have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Three GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss: Two or less GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.

I know there were some comments at the beginning of the month that basically said this was a no-brainer. Well, this season, there is no such thing as a no-brainer this season as only 2 of the 5 were above average for March.

With both GSB and GSG giving me Complete Miss outlooks for March, my average has now dropped to 0.83, below the goal of 1.00. Of the four remaining results, it looks like I’ll be needing at least 2 Bull’s Eye predictions to get to the goal.

With that in mind, here’s a look at April so far. I had ranges for where I believed each of the 5 GSB cities would be for the end of April, basically the end of the snow season. Below are their current rankings (as of the 9th), with the range I had given them in parenthesis.

Albany: 9th (5-9)
Binghamton: 6th (3-6)
Buffalo: 16th (13-19)
Rochester: 12th (8-12)
Syracuse: 4th (3-4)

Right now, all five are in the ranges I set. The best way for me to get a Bull’s Eye with this forecast is for there to be no more snow for the next few weeks. I’m sure most people would be fine with that!

Hey, have a great week everyone!

With the silliness that comes with the start of April out of the way (yes, the last post was an April Fool’s Day joke!), it’s time to see just how much of a joke this season’s Point Blank Range Forecasts were.

To start, it’s a look at the final forecast of the season: temperatures, and their relation to average. Below are the number of days the GSB cities had high temperatures below average from the 29th to the 30th.

Albany: 1
Binghamton: 1
Buffalo: 2
Rochester: 2
Syracuse: 1

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities have below average highs both days.
On Target: All five GSB cities have below average highs in one day.
Complete Miss: Any GSB city has above average highs both days.

All five were below average on the 29th, but only Buffalo and Rochester were below average on the 30th. So, the final PBR Forecast of the season was On Target.

As a result, I do not meet the 1.00 average goal set at the beginning of the season. It was these forecasts that did me in this season, as of the 10 forecasts, only 1 was a Bull’s Eye while 5 earned the Complete Miss designation. Golden Snow Globe forecasts were almost the exact opposite: 1 was a Complete Miss while 3 were in the Bull’s Eye category. For the grand total, it’s 18 points out of 20 forecasts, a 0.90 average.

So, the goal for next season will be the same as this season: 1.00 or better.

Tomorrow, I will try to get the Shot In The Dark Forecast results in for March. The SITD have 2 forecasts waiting for verification: the April outlook and the one done back in January for the entire Winter season. I’ll try to get the full SITD wrap up done in the next few weeks.

Have a great week everyone!