Is the little girl to blame for the wacky weather? Hopefully that little burst at least gave our Fort Drum soldiers a little taste of home.

La Nina which from what I have read so far means “Little Girl” in Spanish and it seems that we are seeing the little girl cast her spells in many parts of the world. Sully who is a visitor to the Golden Snowball website has been giving us some great informative information about what could be going on right now weather wise. From what Sully says and trust me when I say I could be mis-interpreting it because it’s pretty technical stuff, is that come the end of this month it will be an official La Nina and most likely a labeled as a pretty strong La Nina or at the very least a moderate one. I’m not going to go rant on about it because I’m still a little clueless (go figure huh) and I’m still Reading up on it. From what I have read it happens because of the water temperatures get colder in the 3.4 region, I think. One thing I did read is that the waters around Australia were colder than normal which may be playing a little havoc as to what normally occurs during a La Nina. Hopefully Sully will stop by when he is feeling a little better and clear up anything I have wrong. Most likely all of it 🙂 Below are some of Sully’s responses that he posted at GSB and once again a big thanks Sully for the great information and Sully has a great informative weather blog at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/sullivanweather/ 🙂

Part of a Conversation about the Warm Weather and La Nina (Little Girl);

SULLY: To have two consecutive years of all-time record breaking warmth is quite unusual. Then again, when one has such a powerhouse Pacific storm system flooding the country with mild Pacific air on the heels of a record breaking area of high pressure (a few records for highest atmospheric pressure were broken over the southeast last week) the return flow of air between these two very large strong synoptic features will most certainly be able to tap the sub-tropics/tropics. The Pacific system’s source air also came from near 30°N, which is the top of the ‘horseshoe’ of warmer than normal SST’s that typically exists during La Nina winters. If you notice many of the all-time record highs across the Northeast for January occurred in 1950 (Strong La Nina) and 1967 (cold neutral – ONI -0.4 close to the 5 month consecutive -0.5 or lower to meet La Nina criteria as the next 3 months dipped into weak La Nina conditions -0.5,-0.6,-0.5). Those years also had major severe weather outbreaks very similar to those experienced over the previous two days.With that being said La Nina is also known for its wild temperature fluctuations and this will show itself later this month as a rather significant arctic outbreak should push its way over from Siberia. There’s already indications of this arctic air becoming displaced as there’s ridging beginning to develop, and more importantly, retrograde over eastern Asia/western Pacific. Usually when this event begins to take place arctic air is about 7-10 days away for the western hemisphere. AO/NAO variables at that time will determine how far south this arctic air will push. Current ensemble means have neutral conditions in the day 7-14 period which would have this airmass evac over the Canadian Martimes/northern New England, but this is still one to two weeks away and much can change between now and then. As it is the AO has been wildly variable for the last 6 months so I doubt a neutral AO will prevail over that entire time frame so somewhere over the northern tier of the US will get clipped by this airmass.
1/8/08 4:45 PM

Patrick said…
Sully, thanks for the great detailed explanation as to what’s going on. WeatherT from the forum also mentioned something about some pretty cold air getting ready to most likely over take the NE. Out of curiosity is the current La Nina considered weak or strong???

Sully said…
Patrick, The current La Nina is actually considered ‘moderate’. The CPC rates La Nina on the ONI index which is a measure of the nino 3.4 region anomalies averaged over a 3 month period. In order to qualify for La Nina anomalies of -0.5 or greater must be met for the 3 month averaged period for a timespan of 5 consecutive months. Technically by this definition, we have yet to attain ‘La Nina’ (this will change at the end of January which will be the 5th consecutive month these conditions will be met). The rankings are as follows:

Weak: -0.5 to -1.0
Moderate: -1.0 to -1.5
Strong: >-1.5

The latest 3 month averaged value for Oct-Nov-Dec was -1.2.—–With that being said, as far as I’m concerned we’ve reached strong La Nina conditions. The SOI has recently skyrocketed, indicating strong La Nina and the pattern over the US all winter has exhibited classic La Nina, overcoming other climatic variables.

More La Nina Information at:

http://www.enn.com/climate/article/24177

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

http://www.ccb.ucar.edu/lanina/summary.html

Maybe not but this is about the time the snow finally started coming down last season. With all those high temperature records set the last few days for most of the Golden Snowball cities it will be interesting to see if we settle into a January pattern like last season. Take a good look at last years snow stats in the chart above because this is about the time when those numbers started going up for some of the cities. Buffalo was king of the snow hill with a decent lead mainly because of their October storm. Albany didn’t even have an inch of snow on the ground yet and Syracuse was stuck on a foot of snow for a long time.

This season December started out strong but then did an about face barely leaving enough snow on the ground to call it a white Christmas. January came in so far like December went out. Last season on the January 10th is when things started changing and it finally started snowing. Um, and snowing and snowing.

The lack of snow last season was so bad that we tried using reverse psychology, the snow dance and NYCO even threatened the Snow God http://www.silent-edge.org/wp/?p=647 to try and make snow http://goldensnowball.com/2007/01/snow-dance-reverse-psychology-or.html .

Syracuse started it’s comeback and Rochester was finally trying to make some kind of move. The General went on the most wanted list in Syracuse for building an army (literally building an army) to fend off Syracuse’s charge at the top of the hill http://goldensnowball.com/2007/01/man-wanted-in-connection-with-snow-coup.html . The big news was that finally the skiers and sledders could get their season under way because they were hurting up until right about now.

Here is how January went in 2007 and it will be interesting to see if we can have a repeat of it this snow season http://goldensnowball.com/2007_01_01_archive.html .

Have a great day all!

Well doubt any of you will be up to read this before it happens, but heads up on the line of severe storms heading across the state early this morning. Let me tell you I am as sound of a sleeper as they come and when this line blew hit it made me jolt out of bed. Can’t remember ever hearing the rain pelt the side of the house so loudly before. Hail, tons of thunder lightning, and the wind is incredible. Had to be gusts over 55 mph. I’m really suprised I can’t see more damage right now out the window.

It’s only been about 20 minutes since it happened and the power website is already showing upwards of 10,000 outages already across WNY. The police scanner is buzzing with outage and damage reports. The line is holding together pretty good and will probably be in Rochester as I publish this and maybe even hold together toward Syracuse and arrive around 6ish.

Oh and the Buffalo temp rose to 63 again this morning marking a 3rd day of record temps!

The good news for those of you who hate our snow is that most of the winter snow storm warnings are no longer in effect the GSB cities except maybe Albany. The storm system that came through and dropped all the freezing rain and plain old rain on most of us has expired.

The bad news for you snow haters is get out the shovels because lake effect snow warnings have been issued for some of the Golden Snowball cities. It looks like the Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and maybe the Binghamton area might be seeing a good dumping of the white gold over the next couple of days. Up to a foot or more in some places between Monday and Tuesday night most likely will be falling and to make things worse the winds are expected to be blowing the snow around pretty good. Keep an eye on the weather and your favorite forecasters and weather channels the next couple of days to keep updated as to what’s going on. It’s gonna get messy, no doubt about it.

What really bugs me, like anyone cares. What really bugs me is that we get 5 – 6 inches of snow that makes everything look beautiful, we end up shoveling it and then it rains wiping it all out. Now I knew rain was suppose to be coming but I figured if it was just freezing rain and I left the snow it would have been a PITA to shovel it afterwords. Anyways the grass was showing this morning after all that rain but come tomorrow morning I don’t expect to see any of the still green earth showing.

It’s time for an SU Basketball rant. Notice how I kept kind of quiet during the football season 🙂 Believe me that wasn’t easy but it’s over with now. Here is my whine about the Syracuse basketball team and it’s not directed at them at all. I watched the game the other night and it was probably their best defensive effort of the season. I seen SU bodies flying all over the place playing halfway decent defense. I start reading around the next day to see what was being said about the game and very little was good. The biggest reason I was reading around was trying to see why Paul Harris took a shot at Tulane’s basket????? The only thing I read that might make sense is that he thought a foul was called????

Anyways I liked the way they played and everything I am reading is about them going 4 for 20 from the outside or whatever the stats were. Get over it people. Su is going to have off outside shooting days. The thing is that they had the shots. This team so far is one of the best offensive teams that I can remember in awhile. Sure the defense needs work. OK, the defense pretty much stinks right now but the other night it wasn’t bad and it probably would have had the same effect on most of the Bg East teams we’ll be playing soon. Most of these guys are freshmen this year and the way they are moving the ball on offense is in my opinion pretty remarkable. I’m loving the running game like we use to have in the past. I also like the leadership That Eric Devendorf is displaying this season. Even coach Boeheim doesn’t give them enough credit when they do something right IMO of course.

And don’t let Eric Devendorf’s style on the court fool you. He has a puppy’s heart in real life. He happened to pop into a fundraiser I attended over the summer which made a lot of people happy including my niece. She wanted an autograph from him and also a hug. She was too shy to ask so I mentioned it too him and with no hesitation gave her one. She still talks about that hug from Eric. Thanks Eric and Good Luck to all the players this season. I’m already enjoying it win or lose! OK, enough said! For now anyways.

Have a great week all and stay safe and take it easy driving!

NIGHT UPDATE!

Just a quick update on the snow stats for today so far. Binghamton has managed to fend off Buffalo so far by just 0.3 of an inch. Rochester finally made some kind of move and so far is winning this storm event. Albany hasn’t updated yet so it will be interesting to see if they got much or not. It’s official that Syracuse has gone over the 1 foot of snow mark standing at 13.1 inches. The totals for this storm for today only are below and remember it isn’t over with. More is expected over night.

Rochester -4.7
Buffalo – 3.8
Binghamton – 3.1
Syracuse – 1.7
Albany – No Report

It looks like all of the Golden Snowball city’s are getting some snow and it looks to continue off and on for the next couple of days. Every kind of precipitation is in the forecast including snow, rain, freezing rain, cats and dogs, the kitchen sink and so on so if you have to go out take it slow because the weather is hit and miss right now and it can go downhill quickly.

Syracuse is unofficially over the 1 foot mark. Unofficially because NOAA hasn’t posted the new stats from overnight but looking out the window it’s more than a safe bet. I remember getting an email from Eric last season, a fellow Syracusan I believe. The email was sent in the middle of February stating how he remembers that in the first week or so in January of last season Syracuse was just over 12 inches of snow. By the end of December 2006 Syracuse had only 12.2 inches of snow and only 12.3 inches up until January 9th according to NOAA stats. Then on Jan 10th we got 10 inches. Here it is the 2nd of December 2007 and they are already over that. All the city’s besides Buffalo of course because of the October storm are above last years totals but below the normal so far. IT’S a RACE and IT’S ON!!!

Lets just hope that the other cities can come in with some decent numbers and what’s up with Rochester this season? They really need to get it going or they might be finding themselves at the bottom of the list and there is nothing more embarrassing than being below Albany. It’s a real possibility depending on what Albany has gotten so far and gets the rest of today. Most of Syracuse’s snow update was from the wee hours of Saturday morning and ended up with a total of 4.8 inches for yesterday. Buffalo picked up 1.5 inches of new snow, Rochester just under an inch reported so far, Bingo and Albany are both reporting .03 but most likely those totals will go up.

It’s gonna be a good snow season I believe for the skiers and the sledders but the start seems pretty weird. In a matter of less than 48 hours I have cut the grass and shoveled the driveway. Something seems wrong, very wrong with that picture. Just give me my 50 degree day to get up the Christmas decorations and I’ll be happy. Have a Super Sunday everyone and drive careful.

Syracuse has sledded into first once again but by less than an inch but after reading around it looks like about 5 inches of snow fell in the Syracuse area so the totals will be going up. Remeber we go by NOAA stats which are official and so far only 1.8 is being reported which was just after midnight. Once NOAA updates them later we’ll post some new stats. A winter storm watch is in effect for most of NY from Sunday through Monday and you can read the Generals post about it at http://goldensnowball.com/2007/12/storm-early-next-week.html and here is a good picture of what Steve is talking about at http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

I think this season will be remembered as one that had the most lead changes throughout the snow season by the time everything is done and over with and that’s no time soon. So far we have had 4 leaders in the Golden Snowball contest with Buffalo kicking off the new season just like they did last year.

Syracuse is reporting 1.8 inches of new snow for yesterday and more fell over night. A few tenths of an inch for Bingo and Albany and thats about it for now. I woke up to the sound of the plows dropping to the road and as always had to get up and see what the Snow God had dropped on us while I was sleeping. I was a little surprised to see everything covered in white even though I saw a band coming our way last night right before I fell asleep. I wasn’t surprised to see that my Neighbor Frank across the street already had his driveway shoveled. He normally is the first followed by Julie and then myself a week later when I decide it’s not going to melt anytime soon. I’m kidding of course, I do shovel sooner. Frank is kind of the leader of the neighborhood in a sense that we all kind of keep an eye on what he is doing. If he puts his trash out we know it’s trash pickup the next day. Every now and then though Frank goofs up and of course us being the followers that we are end up doing the same thing. Trash night here is on Tuesdays but but one time Frank mistakenly put his out on a Monday night and of course a couple of us followed 🙂 Ok, enough rambling and back to snow.

Don’t be surpised if Syracuse’s lead doesn’t last too long. Looking at the radars it looks like Buffalo and maybe Binghamton is getting some snow as I type. Plus read The Generals post below about a storm system moving in to all of the GSB cities. So far there have been 4 different leaders as mentioned and I’ll try to keep track of that in the posts. Leaders and changes so far to date for the 2007 – 2008 snow season:

Buffalo
Syracuse
Binghamton
Syracuse

Have a great day all and get outside and play in the snow.