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Shot In The Dark Forecasts: January 2011

Posted by Stephen on January 3, 2011
Posted in: Uncategorized.

It has been a quiet start to 2011, but those in the GSB areas know that can change pretty quickly. Rochester and Syracuse broke December records, so this month’s focus will be on the other three cities: Albany, Binghamton and Buffalo, which also happen to hold the bottom three spots in the current standings.

Buffalo (33.6 inches) and Binghamton (33.2 inches) are just shy of the three foot mark, while Albany (13 inches) is just above one foot, for the season. I am expecting January to provide a bit more snowfall for each city.

Bull’s Eye: Albany, Binghamton and Buffalo will at least double their current snowfall totals by month’s end.
On Target: 2 of the three double their current snowfall totals.
Complete Miss: 1 or fewer double their current snowfall totals.

In other words, if Buffalo gets 33.6 inches, Binghamton gets 33.2 inches and Albany gets 13 inches in January, that will be a Bull’s Eye. Two of them getting the respective threshold will be On Target while 1 or fewer will be a Complete Miss.

Be sure to check out goldensnowglobe.com to see the GSG forecast.

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011

Posted by Stephen on January 2, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

So much for getting the forecasts up by New Year’s. Basically, Shot In the Dark forecasts are a gut reaction, with little to no research involved in the outlook. The seasonal forecast is perhaps the biggest gut reaction of them all, as they involve results about three months away from now.

This time, the Golden Snowball SITD focuses on the standings when the contest is called, usually at the end of April. Syracuse has a big lead, and I’m not sure if another city will be able to catch Syracuse. On the flip side, I have no reason to believe Albany will be anywhere but 5th. The real race seems to be for 2nd, 3rd and 4th. I see Rochester taking 2nd and Binghamton being 3rd.

Bull’s Eye: The standings at the end of April will be Syracuse, Rochester, Binghamton, Buffalo and Albany.
On Target: Three are in the forecast spots.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the forecast spots.

Check the Golden Snow Globe site to see the GSG 2011 Winter Forecast.

Introducing this year’s forecasting features

Posted by Stephen on December 29, 2010
Posted in: forecasts.

Visitors on the Golden Snow Globe may recall my forecasting bits from last season. The basic idea was to make 2 forecasts in each post: one for somewhere in New York state and one for somewhere else in the country. There were 20 posts, or 40 forecasts, in all. The goal was to have an accuracy of 90% or better. The feature was called The Golden SnowCast. I’ve worked on some tweaks, and coming soon, I’ll begin forecasting once again.

The first change is that I’ll be doing two types of forecasting, long range and short range, instead of just one like last year. Short range basically follows the same format as last year’s Golden SnowCast: I’ll forecast for a few days away, usually weekends. The long range forecast will involve a season outlook (basically, the end of March) and predictions for January, February and March.

Secondly, the verification system has been changed. Last year, it was either right or wrong, no in between. This year, I’m introducing a target based system. Each forecast will have three different categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss. A Bull’s Eye is worth 2 points, On Target is worth 1 and a Complete Miss is worth 0. The goal will be to be at 1.00 or better by season’s end.

Third, instead of calling the zones New York State and World, they are now Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe. Last year, most of the NYS forecasts involved the GSB cities, and the World forecasts mostly involved other U.S. cities, so this is just a minor change really. Each zone’s forecast will be posted on the respective sites.

Finally, I’ll be taking suggestions into account when making the forecasts. Last year, we had a feature called Stump the Weather Chump. While that will stay this year, I figure we can expand on that this year. Basically, if a suggestion fits into the forecasting features, I’ll try to use it there. If not, it’ll be used as a Stump the Weather Chump challenge.

I’m sure all of this will make more sense as the forecasting begins. I plan on doing a season outlook on New Year’s Eve, and the January look on New Year’s Day. The first weekend forecast will be next week.

Happy Holidays everyone!

Top 3 Snowiest Days for GSB Cities

Posted by Stephen on December 19, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized.

With Syracuse having taken over the updates on the site (and deservedly so), I figured it was about time to shift the focus off of the current contest, especially since it’s been a fairly calm period for the GSB cities. There was a pretty good discussion on the previous update about the snowiest days ever recorded in Syracuse. That discussion is the inspiration for this post, the top three snowiest days for each of the GSB cities.

Albany:
1. 30.4 (March 12, 1888)
2. 23.5 (February 14, 1914)
3. 22.0 (March 13, 1993)

Binghamton:
1. 21.0 (February 19, 1972)
2. 18.6 (March 13, 1993)
3. 18.4 (January 13, 1964)

Buffalo:
1. 33.9 (December 10, 1995)
2. 26.2 (December 28, 2001)
3. 24.9 (November 20, 2000)

Rochester:
1. 23.0 (January 3, 1996)
2. 22.3 (March 4, 1999)
3. 18.4 (March 6, 1999 and February 14, 1960)

Syracuse:
1. 22.1 (March 13, 1993)
2. 22.0 (January 31, 1966)
3. 20.8 (February 4, 1961)

Syracuse Breaks December Monthly Snowfall Record

Posted by Stephen on December 16, 2010
Posted in: snow totals, syracuse record snow.

It’s official, Syracuse just had the snowiest month of December on record. Rochester is next. Just put out by NOAA!

AS OF 1250 PM…70.8 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN FOR THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER AT THE SYRACUSE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD
DECEMBER MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD OF 70.3 INCHES THAT WAS SET IN
DECEMBER 2000.

SINCE THERE ARE TWO MORE WEEKS LEFT IN DECEMBER…THE ALL-TIME
MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR SYRACUSE WILL BE CHALLENGED.

THE TOP 5 MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR THE SYRACUSE AIRPORT ARE AS
FOLLOWS:

1. 78.1 INCHES JANUARY 2004
2. 72.6 INCHES FEBRUARY 1958
3. 72.2 INCHES JANUARY 1978
4. 71.0 INCHES JANUARY 1966
5. 70.8 INCHES DECEMBER 1ST-17TH, 2010

—————————————

On Wednesday, 11.9 inches fell at the Syracuse airport, over double the previous record for the day: 5.4 set way back in 1951.

Syracuse’s snowiest December on record was in 2000 with 70.3 inches. So far this month, the city has 69.5, so it really is not a matter of if the record will be broken, it’s a matter of by how much.

In terms of snowfall before the official start of Winter, Syracuse has already broken that record too. The old one was set in 1995 at 63.5. Currently, Syracuse stands at 70.3 with a few days remaining before Winter officially begins.

There is some good news for those of you in the area who are tired of shoveling or driving in the snow. Snowfall is expected to be minimal for the next few days.

Some Syracuse Snow Stats

Posted by Stephen on December 9, 2010
Posted in: Uncategorized.

Good luck saying that title 5 times fast! 🙂

This is my first post as a contributor to the site, so I figured what better way to celebrate than a look back at the last storm.

According to the National Weather Service, the storm produced the fourth highest snowfall totals in any four day period on record. Below are the top 4 four day totals, with the last date in the four day period in parenthesis.

44.6 inches (2/1/1966)
44.5 inches (3/14/1993)
44.3 inches (1/31/1966)
43.2 inches (12/8/2010)

I find it a bit interesting that the three higher amounts are all in the later portion of the season. So, in other words, this the highest amount of snow Syracuse has ever had in a four day period this early in the season.

It was also the 6th highest 5 day total, and the 5th highest 3 day total.

It snowed continuously from 6:16 AM December 4th to 8:10 AM December 8th. That’s a total of 97 hours and 54 minutes.

Oh yeah, more snow is expected toward the later part of the weekend, and the early part of next week.

Is Buffalo’s snowiest season for all GSB cities (199.4 in 1976-1977) in trouble? Obviously, it’s way too early to tell, but Syracuse is already about a quarter of the way there.

By the way, Winter has not officially begun yet. That’s December 21st, almost 2 weeks away.