Thanksgiving Forecast!

I wish I knew who to credit for this, as it is brilliant. But anyway, here it is…the Thanksgiving Forecast:

Turkeys will thaw in the morning, then warm in the oven to an afternoon high near 190F. The kitchen will turn hot and humid, and if you bother the cook, be ready for a severe squall or cold shoulder.

During the late afternoon and evening, the cold front of a knife will slice through the turkey, causing an accumulation of one to two inches on plates. Mashed potatoes will drift across one side while cranberry sauce creates slippery spots on the other. Please pass the gravy.

A weight watch and indigestion warning have been issued for the entire area, with increased stuffiness around the beltway. During the evening, the turkey will diminish and taper off to leftovers, dropping to a low of 34F in the refrigerator.

Looking ahead to Friday and Saturday, high pressure to eat sandwiches will be established. Flurries of leftovers can be expected both days with a 50 percent chance of scattered soup late in the day. We expect a warming trend where soup develops. By early next week, eating pressure will be low as the only wish left will be the bone.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

2012 Extra Life Event

Hey everyone!

Fall is upon us, and the 2012-13 Snowball race will be starting up soon, I’m sure. In the mean time, I thought I’d take the time to mention an event I will be participating in this Saturday, October 20th: Extra Life.

Extra Life benefits the Children’s Miracle Network Hospital of each participant’s choosing. Since I am from Syracuse, the Upstate Golisano Children’s Hospital was the obvious choice for me.

As an Extra Lifer, I will be participating in a 24 hour video game marathon, starting at 8AM ET on Saturday. I would greatly appreciate any contributions the Golden Snowball readers could give.

Online donations are secure, and those from my page go directly to the Upstate Golisano Children’s Hospital. I do not see any of the online contributions, and there aren’t any fees. 100% of the funds go to helping kids in need.

My donation page is here: http://extra-life.org/participant/PSUSyr5

Thank you all! :)

2012 GSB Forecast Wrap Up

With this season’s Golden Snowball contest just about over, I figured this would be the best time to recap the forecasts. There are still 2 forecasts left to show results, so let’s get to it!

The first one is the PBR forecast from way back in early March. That one called for less than 2 inches of snow for March 9 and 10. If all five had less than 2 inches, it’s a Bull’s Eye. A majority in range would be On Target. Here are the two day totals for the five cities:

Albany: 0.3
Binghamton: 1.0
Buffalo: 0.3
Rochester: 0.5
Syracuse: 4.0

Syracuse was the only one over 2 inches of snow for that time period, so it is an On Target forecast.

Up next is the SITD for the month of March. In that, I was expecting more days with highs of 60 or higher than days with an inch or more. All five would be Bull’s Eye while a majority would have been On Target. Here are the total number of days over 60:

Albany: 11
Binghamton: 16
Buffalo: 15
Rochester: 18
Syracuse: 16

And here are the total number of days with more than an inch of snow:

Albany: 1
Binghamton: 1
Buffalo: 0
Rochester: 2
Syracuse: 4

This is a Bull’s Eye and it wasn’t close at all. At the time I made the forecast, it seemed like a gutsy pick. But the second half of the month is what brought about the big difference.

So with those all set, here is the final results for the season:

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 1.19
SITD 3 0 1 12
PBR 1 5 2 7
Total 4 5 3 19

The 1.19 average is well above the 1.00 goal set at the beginning of the year! It was the Shot In The Dark forecasts that pushed me over the top, accounting for over 63% of the total. So, for next season will be pushed up to that 1.19 mark. One place for improvement is definitely the Point Blank Range forecasts as I only earned 7 points in 8 predictions.

Enjoy the offseason everyone!

Coincidence…or…something else?

With the absolute lack of snow in any of the GSB cities (it’s so snowless that Albany’s average season currently tops Rochester’s total for the season thus far), I thought I’d do a little bit of digging into some data. Being from the Syracuse area, I naturally started there, and was a bit surprised at what I found…and wondered if it held true for the other GSB cities as well.

Last season, Syracuse finished with 179 inches, 4th place since 1951-52. As of right now, this season ranks as Syracuse’s least snowiest in that span. Talk about extremes! But…there is another with similar differences…exactly 10 years ago.

In the 2000-01 season, 191.9 inches fell in the Syracuse area, 2nd place since 1951-52 by 0.2. As for 2001-02? It’s the current least snowiest season in Syracuse during the airport era with 59.4.

With both cases, a season of extreme high snowfall was followed by extreme low snowfall. Could this be true for other GSB cities as well? Well…mostly.

Take Albany, for instance. Last season was extreme, finishing 9th. This season currently ranks 2nd to last. The 2000-01 wasn’t met with such an extreme high, at 14th place, and 2001-02 wasn’t such an extreme low, coming in at 45th. Still, it is a fairly extreme high followed by a fairly extreme low.

What about Binghamton? 2010-11 was 6th and 2011-12 is currently last. 2000-01 is 11th…and 2001-02 is 9th least snowiest. Extreme highs and extreme lows.

Buffalo breaks the mold. 2000-01 was their 2nd snowiest since 51-52 while 2001-02 comes in at 6th. By the way, that season was the last time Syracuse was not the champion.

Rochester puts the mold back together a little bit. This season is their 3rd least snowiest season while last season their 12th snowiest season. 2000-01 was Rochester’s 7th snowiest season and was followed by what’s currently their 4th least snowiest season. Once again, extreme highs…extreme lows.

All rankings are since 1951-52.

So, is it just coincidence…or is it something else?

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Mar. 10, 2012

Before I dive into the usual stuff with the PBR, one announcement. I have decided to cancel the remainder of the PBR and SITD forecasts. So, instead of 10 PBR and 5 SITD, I’m doing 8 PBR and 4 SITD forecasts. Given the very low snowfall totals this season, I feel that it is quite appropriate to also lower the number of snow forecasts.

That means, this is the final PBR forecast of the 2011-12 season! It’s another “little or no snow” forecast, which is also fitting given the lack of snow all season. Before I get into that, it’s a look at the previous forecast.

The most recent outlook called for 2-6 inches of snow between February 29th and March 1st for Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse. If all three were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. 2 out of 3 in range is On Target. Here are the totals:

Albany: 8.8
Binghamton: 2.2
Syracuse: 2.2

Albany was the only one out of range, so it is On Target. By the way, the 4.0 inches for Albany on the 29th was a record for the date.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 1.08
SITD 2 0 1 8
PBR 1 4 2 6
Total 3 4 3 14

The On Target forecast keeps me above the 1.00 average. Speaking of that, the target for total points is now 16. So I need this forecast to be a Bull’s Eye, or the SITD forecast to be at least On Target to be at the 1.00 goal for the end of the season.

Now it’s time for the final forecast. This one involves all the cities and, as mentioned earlier, does not have much in the way of snowfall totals.

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have less than 2 inches of snow through Saturday.
On Target: A majority of the cities have less than 2 inches of snow through Saturday.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: March 2012

Three SITD forecasts down, 2 to go. The March edition features a bit of a twist…but we’ll get into that a little bit later. But first, it’s a look back at the February forecast.

The February outlook once again involved below average snowfall. If all five GSB cities had below average snowfall, or at least one of them was below average by 10 or more inches, that would be a Bull’s Eye. A majority with below average snowfall would be On Target.

Here are the snowfall totals for February, with average in parenthesis:

Albany: 4.6 (12.4)
Binghamton: 11.6 (17.1)
Buffalo: 9.6 (17.3)
Rochester: 27.3 (21.5)
Syracuse: 11.5 (25.3)

Rochester was above average, but Syracuse was almost 14 inches below average for February. As a result, this is a Bull’s Eye forecast!

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 1.08
SITD 2 0 1 8
PBR 1 3 2 5
Total 3 3 3 13

That’s my second straight Bull’s Eye in the SITD forecasts, and it brings me over the 1.00 goal for the first time this season!

Now it’s time for the March outlook. We have warmer weather on tap, and I thought it’d be fun to compare high temperatures with snowfall. So, the March outlook involves days with high temperatures 60 degrees or higher and days with snowfall of an inch or more.

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have more days with 60+ degree temperatures than snowfall of an inch or more in March.
On Target: A majority of the cities have more days with 60+ degree temperatures than snowfall of an inch or more in March.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great March everyone!

Fun with averages!

With snowfall totals being well below average this season, and last Winter being well above average, I thought I’d take a look at combining the two years. Here are the “to date” totals for this year and last year, as of 3/2:

Albany: 22.8 (77.5 last year)
Binghamton: 37.0 (87.1)
Buffalo: 34.2 (97.5)
Rochester: 52.4 (111.9)
Syracuse: 44.1 (160.1)

And here are the averages for the 2 years:
Albany: 50.15
Binghamton: 62.05
Buffalo: 65.85
Rochester: 82.15
Syracuse: 102.1

Finally, here are the 30 year averages to date, again as of 3/2:
Albany: 46.9
Binghamton: 62.1
Buffalo: 79.3
Rochester: 79.6
Syracuse: 102.7

All but Buffalo have their two year averages within 4 inches of the 30 year average. In fact, the 2 year average for Binghamton and Syracuse are within an inch of the 30 year average!

So, while last Winter was snow-filled and this one is snow-less, when you combine the two, it’s just been average.

Hey, have a great rest of the weekend everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Mar. 1, 2012

A snow event is expected for Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse for the next couple of days. For Buffalo and Rochester, it looks like mostly rain, so they are sitting out of this edition. But we’ll get to that later. Up first is a look at how the last prediction fared.

That previous outlook called for 2-6 inches of snow from the 24th to the 26th. If all five fell in range, that would be a Bull’s Eye. Three or four in range would be On Target. Here are the totals:

Albany: Trace
Binghamton: 4.4
Buffalo: 1.0
Rochester: 4.0
Syracuse: 4.3

Three out of five were in range, so that’s On Target.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.90
SITD 1 0 1 4
PBR 1 3 2 5
Total 2 3 3 9

With that, the average moves up slightly to 0.9, just below the 1.00 goal.

Now on to this edition, which, as mentioned at the top, features three of the GSB cities: Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse.

Bull’s Eye Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse will have 2-6 inches of snow from Wednesday through Thursday.
On Target Two of the three will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Whether you’re in the snow or not, be sure to enjoy the Leap Day tomorrow!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Feb. 26, 2012

I’m continuing my effort to quickly get through the PBR portion of the forecasting features, and this time there’s actually snow involved! Before we get into that, it’s time to check out how the previous forecast fared.

The previous outlook called for less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend. All five GSB cities in range is a Bull’s Eye while 3 or 4 would be On Target. Here are the totals.

Albany: 0.3
Binghamton: 0.4
Buffalo: 0.6
Rochester: 1.5
Syracuse: 0.5

All fell in range, so that’s a Bull’s Eye!

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.89
SITD 1 0 1 4
PBR 1 2 2 4
Total 2 2 3 8

And a very timely Bull’s Eye it is! The average is now up to 0.89, just shy of the 1.00 goal for the end of the season.

Now to try to build on that momentum with the new forecast, which involves snow totals for all GSB cities over the 3 day period.

Bull’s Eye All GSB cities will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Feb. 19, 2012

Before I get into the whole PBR part of the post, a couple of notes.

First off, with how little snow we’ve had this season, I think I’m going to be making alterations to my plan as we go. The idea was to have 5 months of forecasting options for 10 PBR forecasts, December through April. December was a bust, and I can’t imagine April being that much better. So now I’m going to try to squeeze in the remaining forecasts as quickly as possible. That way I can get most, if not all, of the forecasts done by the end of March. This will be forecast 5, so I have about a month and a half to get 4 or 5 more forecasts done. As a result, I’ll probably end up doing a few “little or no snowfall” forecasts…including this one.

Finally, for those of you who have just started coming to the site, I figured I’d explain just what the PBR forecasts are. Point Blank Range forecasts are predictions made generally 1-3 days in advance. All forecasts made are with complete certainty, no waffle words such as “chance of” or “likely”…and, I keep track of how the forecasts have fared. There are 3 scoring ranges with any PBR forecast: Bull’s Eye (2 points), On Target (1 point) and Complete Miss (0 points). On Target is more or less what I anticipate to happen, while a Bull’s Eye is like a bonus. The goal for the end of the season is to average “On Target”, or 1.00 when this and the Shot In The Dark forecast results are combined. SITD forecasts are like PBRs, except done monthly and double points.

With that out of the way, let’s get into how the last forecast fared. That called for a snowfall totals to range between 1-6 inches for the 11th and 12th. If all five GSB cities were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. On Target was a majority of the GSB cities in range. Here are the two day totals:

Albany: 0.2
Binghamton: 3.3
Buffalo: 4.0
Rochester: 15.3
Syracuse: 3.9

Rochester blew the forecast away, due to 10.3 inches falling on Sunday. Amazingly enough, that was not a record for the date. That belongs to 1910, in which 16 inches fell. Despite this, and Albany going under an inch, the forecast still managed to fall in the On Target category.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.75
SITD 1 0 1 4
PBR 0 2 2 2
Total 1 2 3 6

As mentioned up top, this is a “little snow” forecast. With the snow event well to the south, I am not anticipating much snowfall for the GSB cities this weekend.

Bull’s Eye All GSB cities will have less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend.
Complete Miss Any other result.