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All posts for the month April, 2012

Ut Oh Syracuse!!!  It looks like your reign as the King of the Golden Snowball contest is coming to an end.  Your spot on the top of the snow pile will soon be taken away by The Rock, Roch cha cha, the Great city of Rochester :)

With less than 2 days left in the great snow race Rochester holds a big enough lead and is dug in deep enough on top of the snow hill that no city will be able to reach them by the end of June 30th.  Now the question is what’s next other than come May 1st declaring Rochester the snow champions for the 2011 – 2012 season.

The question that comes to my mind is how will the city of Syracuse transfer the trophy over to Rochester.  Maybe the Mayor will take a limo and deliver it personally?  Maybe they will just ship it to them through the mail?  In my opinion it would be pretty cool to have a convoy of salt trucks and snow plows driving down the highway with the mayor following in a limo.  Of course it would be nice if the mayor would ask me to join her 😉  Throw in a marching band from one of the city’s schools and hey, it’s a party now.  After all they did most likely save hundreds of thousands of dollars this winter.

These are a few of my suggestions.  How do you think the city of Syracuse should pass the trophy along?

With this season’s Golden Snowball contest just about over, I figured this would be the best time to recap the forecasts. There are still 2 forecasts left to show results, so let’s get to it!

The first one is the PBR forecast from way back in early March. That one called for less than 2 inches of snow for March 9 and 10. If all five had less than 2 inches, it’s a Bull’s Eye. A majority in range would be On Target. Here are the two day totals for the five cities:

Albany: 0.3
Binghamton: 1.0
Buffalo: 0.3
Rochester: 0.5
Syracuse: 4.0

Syracuse was the only one over 2 inches of snow for that time period, so it is an On Target forecast.

Up next is the SITD for the month of March. In that, I was expecting more days with highs of 60 or higher than days with an inch or more. All five would be Bull’s Eye while a majority would have been On Target. Here are the total number of days over 60:

Albany: 11
Binghamton: 16
Buffalo: 15
Rochester: 18
Syracuse: 16

And here are the total number of days with more than an inch of snow:

Albany: 1
Binghamton: 1
Buffalo: 0
Rochester: 2
Syracuse: 4

This is a Bull’s Eye and it wasn’t close at all. At the time I made the forecast, it seemed like a gutsy pick. But the second half of the month is what brought about the big difference.

So with those all set, here is the final results for the season:

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 1.19
SITD 3 0 1 12
PBR 1 5 2 7
Total 4 5 3 19

The 1.19 average is well above the 1.00 goal set at the beginning of the year! It was the Shot In The Dark forecasts that pushed me over the top, accounting for over 63% of the total. So, for next season will be pushed up to that 1.19 mark. One place for improvement is definitely the Point Blank Range forecasts as I only earned 7 points in 8 predictions.

Enjoy the offseason everyone!

Updated 4/23 11:00 PM – Well it turned out to be a bust so far for the GSB cities but a couple of records were broken.  Rochester is reporting 2.6 inches breaking the old record of 0.8 set in 1956.  Buffalo tied their date record going all the way back to 1927 with 0.8 inches.  Could be a little bit left in the air but, but ummm, go Rochester :)

Remember it’s not over til the fat man sings and I’m not singing yet.  I do have a pretty good humming going on right now though 😉

Update 4/23 12:30 pm – No new stats to report from NOAA (the National Weather Service) yet.  Just a trace for a couple of the cities as of yesterday.  They will come out a little bit later this afternoon and I’ll update them when NOAA has an update.  Here in Syracuse or at least around my house nothing to report.  Any ideas on snow in Buffalo, Rochester and Maybe Bingo?  Stay tuned :)

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With just about 7 days left before the contest ends Rochester might have to worry about this storm that is suppose to hit in the wee hours and go into perhaps Tuesday.  Stop the parade!

So far from what I have been watching Buffalo is looking to gain the most out of this storm.  Depending on how you look at it that is.  The higher elevations should be getting a good dumping of (unfortunetly) the wet heavy white gold.  Chances are Rochester will get enough themselves to hold off this late season charge but it should be interesting.  Syracuse from what I’m hearing anyways, is suppose to get mainly rain and a lot of it. Let’s just hope there isn’t a mess with trees down and power outages.  If you have time drop us a comment as to how things are going in your neck of the woods :)

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Have a GREAT week all and take it easy on the roads,  See Snow – Drive Slow!

 

With the absolute lack of snow in any of the GSB cities (it’s so snowless that Albany’s average season currently tops Rochester’s total for the season thus far), I thought I’d do a little bit of digging into some data. Being from the Syracuse area, I naturally started there, and was a bit surprised at what I found…and wondered if it held true for the other GSB cities as well.

Last season, Syracuse finished with 179 inches, 4th place since 1951-52. As of right now, this season ranks as Syracuse’s least snowiest in that span. Talk about extremes! But…there is another with similar differences…exactly 10 years ago.

In the 2000-01 season, 191.9 inches fell in the Syracuse area, 2nd place since 1951-52 by 0.2. As for 2001-02? It’s the current least snowiest season in Syracuse during the airport era with 59.4.

With both cases, a season of extreme high snowfall was followed by extreme low snowfall. Could this be true for other GSB cities as well? Well…mostly.

Take Albany, for instance. Last season was extreme, finishing 9th. This season currently ranks 2nd to last. The 2000-01 wasn’t met with such an extreme high, at 14th place, and 2001-02 wasn’t such an extreme low, coming in at 45th. Still, it is a fairly extreme high followed by a fairly extreme low.

What about Binghamton? 2010-11 was 6th and 2011-12 is currently last. 2000-01 is 11th…and 2001-02 is 9th least snowiest. Extreme highs and extreme lows.

Buffalo breaks the mold. 2000-01 was their 2nd snowiest since 51-52 while 2001-02 comes in at 6th. By the way, that season was the last time Syracuse was not the champion.

Rochester puts the mold back together a little bit. This season is their 3rd least snowiest season while last season their 12th snowiest season. 2000-01 was Rochester’s 7th snowiest season and was followed by what’s currently their 4th least snowiest season. Once again, extreme highs…extreme lows.

All rankings are since 1951-52.

So, is it just coincidence…or is it something else?

Rochester added another inch to their totals and I have to admit that it’s not looking good right now for the other GSB cities.  Looking at the forecast for the next week or so with the lows still going below freezing it’s still too early to concede not to mention the contest doesn’t end until April 30th at midnight.

When the time does come no doubt the word concede is the perfect word to use.  Definition of concede – The word concede to Admit that something is true or valid after first denying or resisting it.

I think reality is setting in for those of us in the Syracuse area.  Hope for a strong comeback slowly fading away now with each day that passes by.  After nine seasons, the chance of the Golden Snowball trophy staying where it’s been, just outside of the Mayors office on a shelf will soon be heading west.  West to Rochester, New York which will be the first time since the resurrection of the golden snowball contest began About 10 years ago.

Although the hope is fading for repeat snow champions Syracuse we’re just not quite ready to concede just yet :)  It will be interesting to see how the city of Syracuse presents the trophy to Rochester if they do hold on for the victory.  Any thoughts or suggestions to pass along to the Mayors office?

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Have a Happy Easter All…