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All posts for the month February, 2012

A snow event is expected for Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse for the next couple of days. For Buffalo and Rochester, it looks like mostly rain, so they are sitting out of this edition. But we’ll get to that later. Up first is a look at how the last prediction fared.

That previous outlook called for 2-6 inches of snow from the 24th to the 26th. If all five fell in range, that would be a Bull’s Eye. Three or four in range would be On Target. Here are the totals:

Albany: Trace
Binghamton: 4.4
Buffalo: 1.0
Rochester: 4.0
Syracuse: 4.3

Three out of five were in range, so that’s On Target.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.90
SITD 1 0 1 4
PBR 1 3 2 5
Total 2 3 3 9

With that, the average moves up slightly to 0.9, just below the 1.00 goal.

Now on to this edition, which, as mentioned at the top, features three of the GSB cities: Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse.

Bull’s Eye Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse will have 2-6 inches of snow from Wednesday through Thursday.
On Target Two of the three will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Whether you’re in the snow or not, be sure to enjoy the Leap Day tomorrow!

Sunday Morning – All of the snow stats should be up to date now!

Midnight – First of Way To Go Syracuse Orange!!!!!!  They beat UConn in a nail biter to lock the champion spot in the regular season Big East.  WTG and keep it going guys!  Anyone looking for the champion t-shirts ya know I got ya covered 😉  Check out the SU Big East Championship T-shirts here!

OK, I  just did an update but all the stats aren’t in for today.  Buffalo & Rochester are as of about 4pm Saturday & Albany isn’t reporting.  Bingo and Da’Cuse are as of 10 pm Sat.

It looks like it’s snowing halfway decent in several of the cities today.  Buffalo managed to bump Binghamton back down to 4th place and it looks like it’s still snowing there.  Here in Da’Cuse we had a decnt snow band this morning but it went by pretty fast.  It’s been light snow non stop so far so we’ll see if the totals can add up.  The best part is the winds are kicking so it looks like winter out there.  Hows the snowfall where your at?  I’ll update when some more stats come in.

On another note I had to add the reCAPTCHA to the comments section.  That’s where you have to type the words in to verify it’s a legit comment.  I’ve had to spend about an hour a day getting rid of spam that another program hasn’t been blocking.  I know it’s a PITA but right now I have no choice.  Sorry for the inconvenience.

Warning Shameless Pet Store plug below so I can try and make a buck or two at my real job :)
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Have a great snowy weekend all :)

 

I’m continuing my effort to quickly get through the PBR portion of the forecasting features, and this time there’s actually snow involved! Before we get into that, it’s time to check out how the previous forecast fared.

The previous outlook called for less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend. All five GSB cities in range is a Bull’s Eye while 3 or 4 would be On Target. Here are the totals.

Albany: 0.3
Binghamton: 0.4
Buffalo: 0.6
Rochester: 1.5
Syracuse: 0.5

All fell in range, so that’s a Bull’s Eye!

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.89
SITD 1 0 1 4
PBR 1 2 2 4
Total 2 2 3 8

And a very timely Bull’s Eye it is! The average is now up to 0.89, just shy of the 1.00 goal for the end of the season.

Now to try to build on that momentum with the new forecast, which involves snow totals for all GSB cities over the 3 day period.

Bull’s Eye All GSB cities will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Buffalo picked up just enough snow to slip past Binghamton and move into the third place slot on the snow hill.  I think the bigger story is that Rochester continues to add to their lead and now are 10 inches + over second place Syracuse.

Rochester is showing 3.8 inches of snow for yesterday while Buffalo is reporting 3.3 inches of the fluffy white stuff.  Still a lot of time to go but with the way this winter has gone so far that 10 inch lead is looking pretty good right now :)  I’m sure Lake Erie is still wide open so Buffalo still has it’s snow machine ready to crank out some lake effect.

I think any of the Golden Snowball cities still have a shot at the trophy this season.  OK, Albany don’t really count :)  Any thoughts on which city you think will win it this season???

Have a Great Day All!

It’s not even close to being a runaway yet but Rochester added a few more inches to their totals.  As of Feb. 17th they also managed to break into the top 10 of the national snow contest for the 1st time this season.  The Big 3 from New York, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse have a long ways to go to catch to the snowiest city in the US with a pop of 100,000 or more.  This late in the season It’s not looking too good for any of us.  Of course with the way the weather has been all over the world the last several months who knows what may happen in the next couple of months.

Click Here to Check Out the National Snow Contest!

Have an Awesome Week All 😉

Before I get into the whole PBR part of the post, a couple of notes.

First off, with how little snow we’ve had this season, I think I’m going to be making alterations to my plan as we go. The idea was to have 5 months of forecasting options for 10 PBR forecasts, December through April. December was a bust, and I can’t imagine April being that much better. So now I’m going to try to squeeze in the remaining forecasts as quickly as possible. That way I can get most, if not all, of the forecasts done by the end of March. This will be forecast 5, so I have about a month and a half to get 4 or 5 more forecasts done. As a result, I’ll probably end up doing a few “little or no snowfall” forecasts…including this one.

Finally, for those of you who have just started coming to the site, I figured I’d explain just what the PBR forecasts are. Point Blank Range forecasts are predictions made generally 1-3 days in advance. All forecasts made are with complete certainty, no waffle words such as “chance of” or “likely”…and, I keep track of how the forecasts have fared. There are 3 scoring ranges with any PBR forecast: Bull’s Eye (2 points), On Target (1 point) and Complete Miss (0 points). On Target is more or less what I anticipate to happen, while a Bull’s Eye is like a bonus. The goal for the end of the season is to average “On Target”, or 1.00 when this and the Shot In The Dark forecast results are combined. SITD forecasts are like PBRs, except done monthly and double points.

With that out of the way, let’s get into how the last forecast fared. That called for a snowfall totals to range between 1-6 inches for the 11th and 12th. If all five GSB cities were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. On Target was a majority of the GSB cities in range. Here are the two day totals:

Albany: 0.2
Binghamton: 3.3
Buffalo: 4.0
Rochester: 15.3
Syracuse: 3.9

Rochester blew the forecast away, due to 10.3 inches falling on Sunday. Amazingly enough, that was not a record for the date. That belongs to 1910, in which 16 inches fell. Despite this, and Albany going under an inch, the forecast still managed to fall in the On Target category.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.75
SITD 1 0 1 4
PBR 0 2 2 2
Total 1 2 3 6

As mentioned up top, this is a “little snow” forecast. With the snow event well to the south, I am not anticipating much snowfall for the GSB cities this weekend.

Bull’s Eye All GSB cities will have less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend.
Complete Miss Any other result.