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All posts for the month January, 2009

Breaking News – Syracuse is Over Their Average Seasonal Snowfall Totals. OK, no matter which seasonal snowfall totals you go by for Syracuse, they are over them all now. Now as the latest stats came in from NOAA and only around halfway through the season. I was going to post a couple of hours ago but wanted to hold off to make sure the airport was getting the little bit needed that I was at my house. As of 5:00 PM Syracuse’s total snowfall for the 2008 – 2009 snow season has piled up to 121.2 going over the highest average that you will see at NOAA. Read the post below for more about why the averages have been talked about lately.

Remember, these stats are on a 30 year average but updated every 10 years. In other words although NOAA has a couple different seasonal averages for Syracuse the average annual snowfall from 1971 – 2000 according to NOAA is 121.1 . That’s the one we are going to go with from here on out. Unless of course we change that :)o If you look around you will see averages of around 117 inches give or take a bit. That would be the all time averages which is something like 58 or 59 years. Pretty much since NOAA started recording or keeping track of the stats. Another would be what NOAA has in their Climate page section which we have been using for the fact that is where we get our daily stats and averages from. The reason we have decided to go with the 121.1 inches for the average annual snowfall is because those seem to be the most accurate or updated. I crunched some numbers together for 30 years of snow seasons and came up with 120.1 but we’ll go with the 121.1 inches which is based on Monthly totals over a 30 year span from 1971 to 2000 instead of annual or seasonal. OK, enough already huh 😉

More breaking news is that Buffalo has regained second place by a few flakes over taking Rochester once again. If only we can get the cities to start making a charge to the top of the snow hill to keep this contest interesting we’ll be all set. Remember only about half way through the snow season now with a full second half to play and anything can happen in that time. Don’t let the fact that Lake Erie is pretty close to being frozen over fool you either. Buffalo is Buffalo and they know how to find a way to grab some snow from where ever they can get it. Don’t be surprised f We catch them trying to tap into our lake, Lake Ontario because they are good at finding snow which brings me to:

Snow is in the forecast with the possibility of a kick butt storm in the making. Rumors are spreading around faster than the snow is flying right now up north in the Watertown area that come early next week another major storm, perhaps the best of the season so far is tweaking itself. From what the snow birdie told me is it may be a little to the west of Syracuse which would probably mean a mix of everything but the kitchen sink in and East of Syracuse. Could be a chance for Buffalo and Rochester to make up some snowflakes on DaCuse. Of course it’s way to far away for any of the pros (your local meteorologists to even coma close to making a call as to which way it will head but keep checking with them because if everything falls into place this could be a good one. Hopefully all snow in New York but that probably isn’t going to happen. It would be nice if it could stay to the east of Syracuse where everyone gets to play. Congrats to Syracuse on hitting the annual snowfall this early in the season. The annual snowfall whatever it may be 😉 Have a great night all!

The numbers are in and although the storm didn’t drop quite as much snow as we were hoping for daily records were broken. Believe it or not 4 out of the 5 goldensnowball cities broke snowfall records for the date and who would of thought that with 5.9 inches Albany was the only one that didn’t. Here are the numbers for yesterday compliments of NOAA.

Syracuse – 9.3 inches broke record from 1997
Rochester – 7.5 inches broke record all the way back to 1889???
Buffalo – 7.1 inches broke record from 2004
Binghamton – 5.9 inches broke the date snow record from 2004
Albany – 5.9 inches no record and believe it or not the record is over 9 inches for them.

As for Syracuse’s Normal yearly totals (read below) most likely we’ll be going with the 121.1 average which NOAA has at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/climate/syr/syr_normals.shtml but I’m going to crunch some more numbers to make sure and also check out the other cities averages.

The big question is did Syracuse hit their normal average for the season? Probably not. After doing some research after being contacted by Jim Teske at TV 9 along with the link above to some stats, there is a good chance that the averages that we use from another section of NOAA may not be correct. I also crunched some numbers from another section and came up with 120.1 compared to the 111.9 that NOAA has in the reports that we use here. More to come tomorrow but hopefully we will get some lake effect snow to put us over what may be the new total of 121.1 . Stay tuned! In the mean time Jim Teske has a good post going on with a summary of the winter so far at http://www.9wsyr.com/news/local/story/Teskes-Tidbits-1-29-09-The-One-About-The-Mid/MWxe2hAPmkKijIB6zN8-tw.cspx

First off we have another tie between Buffalo and Rochester. The second time they have tied this season.

As for the storm, My guess is that the storm heading our way must have shifted a bit because when I checked yesterday Syracuse, Binghamton and Albany were under a Storm Watch. Buffalo and Rochester were left out. The good/bad (depending on how much you like storms) news is that All of the golden snowball cities are now under a snowstorm warning. The storm also looks to be getting a bit bigger which could be another reason that Buffalo and Rochester are now under the snow gun also. The more the merrier and from reading around a good part of New York state is/will be under a storm warning.

The consensus seems to be anywhere from 5 – 12 inches of snow between late tonight and into Wednesday. A snow day for the kids? It’s looking pretty good in my opinion but no hate mail kids if it doesn’t happen. What I’m liking about this storm is that there really isn’t much of a mention of freezing rain for our areas anyways. It should be cold enough to keep it all snow. Unfortunately some of the south western states are getting the freezing rain and ice as shown on the weather channel.

Will Syracuse surpass their average seasonal snow totals by the end of tomorrow? Looking at the Golden Snowball season snow average it’s almost a no brainer that we will. Unfortunately it’s not that easy though after an email I received from Jim Teske from TV 9 a great meteorologist here in the Syracuse area. He sent me a good link with monthly stats that add up to a seasonal average for Syracuse of 121.1 inches of snow which is in the 30 year period that we use. You can view those stats at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/climate/syr/syr_normals.shtml NOAA Stats and Official. Jim’s right with those stats>

The stats we use are also from NOAA but are different from what Jim pointed out to me. Rather than post the link because it’s a several step process I’ll post what I will pull up come the end of May and these are from May of 2008, last seasons yearly normals.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000

WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR`S
VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S)
NORMAL
……………………………………………………….
SNOWFALL (INCHES)
RECORDS
TOTAL 2.1 1996
24 HR TOTAL 2.1 05/12/1996 TO 05/12/1996
SNOW DEPTH 1 05/12/1996
TOTALS 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0
SINCE 7/1 109.1 111.9 -2.8 140.2

The 109.1 would have been last years totals for Syracuse and the 111.9 states Normal Value. Perhaps I’m missing something and Normal Value isn’t the same as Average??? Thoughts??? Either way I’ll get to the bottom of this and maybe Jim will chime in and help me see the way. After crunching numbers all morning all I can say is for some reason I have a headache. More to come as I’m clued in more 😉

Tomorrows headlines at Goldensnowball.com will most likely be if we get just a few inches “Syracuse Passes Their Seasonal Totals, I Think” or “Syracuse Plows by Their Seasonal Averages” if we can stack up at least 11.3 inches of snow. Hopefully the second one 😉

Take it slow tomorrow because the chances are really good that the roads will be nasty tomorrow and as always See Snow – Drive Slow.

Syracuse remains king of the snow hill still but Rochester didn’t like the fact that Buffalo took 2nd place from them. Rochester gathered enough of the white gold to move back into 2nd place. Other than a flurry here and there it’s been pretty quiet lately as far as any good storms go. Hopefully we can get back into them.

All of the Golden Snowball award cities are still over their normal averages for the season and also staying above last years totals at this time in the winter. Syracuse is now just under 3 inches away from their normal yearly snowfall so I think it’s a gimme now that they will be above their normals for the season.

Looking at the other cities they are all still on track to slip past their totals also. Speaking of the yearly average snow stats you probably see several different totals if your surfing other weather sites. The reason for that is that some go by what the total average is since snow stats were being recorded, others go by the last 30 years and here at Golden Snowball we go by what NOAA goes by which is a 30 year average on a 10 year rolling schedule.

In other words, we use the stats that NOAA uses in which they average the 30 year totals on a 10 year scale. The last time they would have averaged the total snowfall for the GSB cities would have been in 2000 if my memory serves me right and remember it normally doesn’t. The next time they will calculate a 30 year average should be in 2010, next year I believe. Personally I would rather see the 30 year average taken on a 5 year schedule but no doubt they have their reasons and know what they are doing :)

Have a great day all!

We finally have some kind of change in the line up with Buffalo slipping past Rochester by 2/10 of total snowfall for the season. This is the first change since January 1st when Rochester snuck past Buffalo for second place. Now all we need to make things exciting is for those 2 to catch up to Syracuse and with more than half a season left of snowfall it’s definitely possible.

Today we celebrate Rev. Martin Luther King day and of course we all know how fitting it is seeing what is going to happen tomorrow. For the first time in history we will witness something none of us have ever witnessed before. Yup, tomorrow for the first time ever and the only time it will happen my son Shane turns 24 years old. So Happy Early Birthday Shane. Tomorrow the world will be throwing party after party on your Birthday 😉

What? Did you think I was going somewhere else with the history thing? That will probably come tomorrow if I can tear myself away from the TV. In reality though I was thinking of the path that people like the Reverend, Rosa Parks and others laid down to make tomorrow a reality and not just a dream. I’ll leave it at that for now.

Have a Great Monday All!