While it’s still March, I wanted to get the April forecast in now. Before I do that though, I’ll give a quick update on the March forecast.

If you recall, the outlook for the month involved snowfall compared to average. Below are the snowfall totals for the month so far, with monthly average in parenthesis.

Albany: 6.6 (10.9)
Binghamton: 20.2 (14.2)
Buffalo: 4.1 (12.4)
Rochester: 8.0 (16.6)
Syracuse: 14.1 (18.8)

Right now, only Binghamton is over their monthly average. I need at least 2 more to do the same to get the On Target spot, with all four meaning a Bull’s Eye prediction.

Now on to April’s outlook. I believe that the snow machine is coming to an end. There will be snow this week (more on that tomorrow!), but I believe that will be the final push. With that in mind, I’m giving a range for how this season will rank for each city at the end of April.

Albany: 5-9
Binghamton: 3-6
Buffalo: 13-19
Rochester: 8-12
Syracuse: 3-4

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities are within the given ranges.
On Target: Three or four are in the given ranges.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the given ranges.

Happy Spring everyone! Be sure to check out the SITD forecast over on Golden Snow Globe as well.

Mild temperatures have been the story for the later part of the week, but they are not going to stay this way for long. More details on that to come, but first is the look back at the last forecast.

The previous outlook involved snowfall for Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. Here are their snow totals from the 25th through the 27th of February.

Buffalo: 11.1
Rochester: 10.0
Syracuse: 9.3

Bull’s Eye: All three get at least 8 inches, with at least one getting a foot, of snow this weekend.
On Target: All three get at least 8 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: At least one of the three gets under 8 inches of snow.

Neither could quite get to the foot mark over the three days, so it is an On Target forecast.

With this and the GSG forecast being On Target, my average remains below 1.00 for the season, now at 0.93. Just 3 forecasts remain, enough to either finish out strong or end with a whimper.

Now on to this forecast, which as hinted at before, focuses on temperatures. In particular, it compares Friday highs with Sunday’s low for all GSB cities. I am expecting double digit differences for at least a majority of the region.

Bull’s Eye: Friday’s high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday’s for all five GSB cities.
On Target: Friday’s high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday’s for 3 of the five GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Friday’s high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday’s less than 3 of the five GSB cities.

Be sure to check out the forecast on Golden Snow Globe as well!

I’d like to say that the season is wrapping up, but seeing forecasts of a foot of snow on tv and online make me want to hold off on that. More on that later, but first, it’s a look back at the February forecast.

That forecast involved snowfall totals for Rochester and Syracuse. Below are their seasonal totals that were recorded at the end of February.

Rochester: 112.0
Syracuse: 160.3

Bull’s Eye: Rochester reaches 100, and Syracuse hits 150, by the end of the month.
On Target: Rochester reaches 100 by the end of the month.
Complete Miss: Rochester stays under 100 at the end of the month.

It’s a Bull’s Eye with both cities reaching the respective marks.

It turned out to be a great month for me. This Bull’s Eye, combined with an On Target at GSG, brings my average up to 1.25. My intention at the beginning of the season was to make March the final SITD forecast. However, I have two forecasts that I’d like to do. So, the new plan is to have this one go for the month, and in a few weeks I will post the final one. This would give me 5 forecast periods, including the one done to start the season.

On that note, it’s time for the March forecast. All the GSB cities are above their averages for the entire season, with more snow on the way. In an above average season, I just can’t bring myself to forecast a below average March.

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities will have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Three GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss: Two or less GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.

Here are the averages for March for each city.
Albany: 10.9
Binghamton: 14.2
Buffalo: 12.4
Rochester: 16.6
Syracuse: 18.8

Remember to check out the Golden Snowball site for the SITD Forecast over there!

I could see some unknown green stuff where the white lawn used to be. That must mean it’s time for another snow storm! I’m sure most in upstate NY region already know about the upcoming storm, for which I will be forecasting for Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. Before I get into that, it’s a look back at the last forecast.

That last forecast featured snowfall amounts for the GSB cities. Here is their totals for the 20th and 21st.

Albany: 3.1
Binghamton: 4.7
Buffalo: 2.5
Rochester: 3.1
Syracuse: 1.8

Bull’s Eye: Syracuse’s snowfall total is higher than the combined total of the other 4 GSB cities.
On Target: Syracuse’s snowfall total is higher than any other GSB city.
Complete Miss: At least one GSB city has more snow than Syracuse.

Um…yeah. I’m just going to let that one speak for itself.

That Complete Miss along with the On Target forecast over on GSG made it a bit of a tough weekend. Once again, I have fallen below the 1.00 goal, now sitting at 0.92. There are now 4 weeks of forecasts left to reach that threshold.

To get there, I need a strong finish here, so let’s start it up this weekend! As mentioned at the beginning, this focuses on the trio of Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. The big story is the Friday storm, and for good reason. Including that into the weekend, I see the three getting at least 8 inches, with at least one possibly getting a foot.

Bull’s Eye: All three get at least 8 inches, with at least one getting a foot, of snow this weekend.
On Target: All three get at least 8 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: At least one of the three gets under 8 inches of snow.

Have a great weekend, and remember to check out the forecast on Golden Snow Globe as well!

I wanted to get this done yesterday, but do to some difficulties, which are explained in more detail over on Golden Snow Globe, I was unable to get it done. That is the problem with waiting for verification sometimes, but that is the nature of it when trying to show how right (or wrong) a prediction was.

Last forecast involved temperatures, a comparison between highs and lows. Below are nighttime lows on Thursday (6pm to 6am) with Wednesday’s highs in parenthesis.

Albany: 37 (39)
Binghamton: 46 (41)
Buffalo: 49 (44)
Rochester: 48 (44)
Syracuse: 40 (41)

Bull’s Eye: All GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.
On Target: 3 or 4 GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.
Complete Miss: 2 or fewer GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.

With 3 out of the 5 having warmer Thursday night lows than Wednesday highs, the forecast is On Target.

A pretty solid week for me, including the Bull’s Eye on GSG, pushes my total to 10 points from 10 forecasts, a 1.00 average. That is exactly the goal set at the beginning of the season. We’ve reached the halfway point for the forecasts, and I’d like to have it all wrapped up at the end of March.

Now on to this forecast. As I mentioned earlier, I wanted to get it done yesterday as it was a comparison with Syracuse snowfall and the other GSB cities. I still believe the same idea will work out for Sunday and Monday.

Bull’s Eye: Syracuse’s snowfall total is higher than the combined total of the other 4 GSB cities.
On Target: Syracuse’s snowfall total is higher than any other GSB city.
Complete Miss: At least one GSB city has more snow than Syracuse.

Have a great weekend everyone, and remember to check out the forecast over on Golden Snow Globe.

This is the first midweek forecast of the season, and it is an effort to make up for not having one this past weekend. I will try to get another one up for this weekend as well.

Before all of that though, it is a look back at the last forecast, which involved snowfall for all GSB cities. Below are the weekend totals for each.

Albany: 0.5
Binghamton: 0.3
Buffalo: 4.1
Rochester: 3.3
Syracuse: 5.9

Bull’s Eye: Albany and Binghamton combine for more snow than the other three GSB cities’ combined total.
On Target: Albany and Binghamton have more snow than the other three GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Albany or Binghamton have less snow than at least one of the other GSB cities.

Warm temperatures kept Albany and Binghamton from getting the snow I expected. As a result, the forecast was a Complete Miss. Without a doubt, this is the worst forecast I’ve had for the GSB cities this season.

It was a tough forecast period for me as the GSG forecast only hit On Target. As a result, I’m at 7 points for 8 forecasts, which puts me at an average of .88. 12 forecasts, 6 periods worth, still remain for the season.

On to this forecast, which involves temperatures. A big warm up is expected for the region. As a result, I expect low temperatures on Thursday night to be warmer than Wednesday’s high for most of the GSB cities.

Bull’s Eye: All GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.
On Target: 3 or 4 GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.
Complete Miss: 2 or fewer GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.

Remember to check out the forecast update on Golden Snow Globe as well. Enjoy the warmer weather everyone!