12:30 am Friday – It’s a go! All of the golden snowball cities are in the target zone for this coming storm which will be hitting all the areas sometime this morning hopefully after the morning rush hour. I hope for the kids sakes that the schools aren’t going to make them get up and go to school for a couple of hours just to send them home around noon or so. Save the gas for the school buses and enjoy a 3 day weekend. JMO of course but I’ll be pulling for the kids to have a snow day come morning 😉

SNOW MEANS SLOW – Stay safe all and buckle up!

1:30 PM Thurs – It looks like Buffalo and Rochester strike first as far as the WARNINGS go! NOAA (the national weather service) in Buffalo just issued a winter storm warning for both Buffalo and Rochester from around 6am Friday morning until around 10PM Friday night. Keep checking the weather links below for current updates!

Early Morning Update – Just a another heads up to keep an eye on the forecast for your area beginning late Thursday night and possible right thru a good part of Friday. Kids, you may be getting a 3 day weekend 😉 You can keep checking the latest storm warnings and watches at the links below.

Watches and Warnings for the Syracuse, Binghamton and other areas

Current Watches and Snow Storm Warnings for the Buffalo, Rochester and Surrounding Areas

Current Snow Storm Warnings and Watches for Albany and Eastern New York State

A good part of New York State is under a winter storm watch right now and most likely could change to warnings for many of the cities in NY. Drive Careful or better yet if the storm does indeed hit stay off the roads because it looks like some windy weather may also be around to blow the snow around. More to come as the storm gets closer. Have a Super Day All!

A quote I read yesterday is probably being repeated over and over again in many cities in a few different states including the Albany area.

“This is pathetic,” said Bob Cott of Portland, Maine, who lost power. “I’m already sick of winter and we have nine days to go before it officially begins.”

Here in New York state over a quarter of a million people were without power as the first storm of the season produced snow, freezing rain and ice in New York, Mass, Maine, Pa and New Hampshire. Most of the GSB cities were spared the power outages because it was cold enough for it to be snow. Albany wasn’t as lucky unfortunately and hopefully everyone will get their power back soon. The temps are looking to warm up come tomorrow and it’s looking like 50’s come Monday in some of the areas.

NBC News Article About the Storm

As far as snow goes not a whole lot and I think Binghamton was the city that surprised me the most. I was watching some of the radars and seen what looked to be several heavy bands including some red on the screen which should have meant a lot of snow. My guess is it may have just missed where the measurements are taken or perhaps it was rain falling. Here in my neck of the woods which is just southeast of the airport we got about 6 inches of the white gold and it wasn’t the nice white fluffy stuff. It was the moisture filled heavy snow that most of us dread shoveling. Luckily for me my youngest son stopped over and had the driveway shoveled by the time I got home. Most of the snow here in the Syracuse area came early in the morning once the storm shifted enough to the east and it came down hard and all at once.

Rochester was able to grab a little over an inch but Buffalo wasn’t able to sneak anything out of this one. Don’t worry I’m sure the General has something up his gloves and will find away to slip to the top sometime soon. No city is running away with the trophy so far and it’s going to be a close race this season.

Like Bob Cott said, It’s Not Even Winter Yet! Have a great day everyone!

8 PM Update – It just started snowing in DaCuse about 20 minutes ago. Just a light to moderate snowfall so far though. Talk about being right on the boarder of this storm.

If it moves 10 – 15 miles more to the north west we could see some decent snow. Like I said we are JUST on the edge of this storm right now to get at least something. I just talked to a woman I know in Schenectady or near there anyways and she said it has been mostly snow for them. I wonder if Albany can be as lucky and get the snow instead of the freezing rain and ice?

2:30 PM Update – First off remember I’m clueless half (most) of the time but I was just checking out the National radar and to me it looks like the storm has/is starting to shift a little more Northwest than it was earlier and perhaps even intensifying a bit. Most of the forecasts have had Syracuse in the 2 – 5 inch range so far but personally I wouldn’t be surprised if the totals for Syracuse and even Rochester go up as the day goes on. Maybe even big if the LES machine gets cranking also. Call it just a hunch and as always remember the source, Me 😉

Morning – Something just doesn’t seem right when you hear about it snowing in New Orleans. Nor does it sound normal to hear of snow showers in Houston but that’s what the news of the day is today along with the system that’s moving toward the Northeast today. Most likely Binghamton will make out with what’s coming our way and Albany will be getting something finally but unfortunately it may be more of a freezing rain and ice event rather than snow.

After looking at a couple of radars and reading around it looks like Binghamton may have a shot to take the lead over from Syracuse but as we all know a shift here or there could change things drastically. Albany is almost certain now to get some kind of mixed precipitation while so far NOAA thinks that Binghamton should be more snow than a mix. Syracuse and Rochester should get into a little bit of the snow but right now it’s pointing more toward Binghamton as being the winner of this storm. Most likely we will be reading about power outages come later tonight or tomorrow due to ice and freezing rain which will probably bring down power lines and tree limbs in a few states including parts of eastern New York.

Buffalo has been slowly adding to their totals to get to a respectable snow total now but they are still lagging and just one notch above Albany and the last place slot. Looking at last seasons stats though they were in the same position at this time last season and they made a run for first place right down til the finish so no way am I thinking for a minute that they won’t be near the top again this snow season. Buffalo’s snow totals are actually higher right now than last season so we all better watch our backs. Syracuse and Rochester are actually below last seasons totals for this time along with Albany but Albany will probably take care of that in the next day or so. Anyways if Your in Binghamton or Albany, keep an eye on your forecast for the next 24 hours or so and drive careful.

It’s that time of the season to issue the Golden Snowball 2008 – 2009 winter prediction and if your a snow hater you might want to stop reading right about now.

Snow, Snow and more snow is what the GBS Oracle sees in the future. As always this is based on highly scientific data. Highly scientific data such as the size of the deer, the color of the caterpillars fur, the flip of a coin and more importantly than all the others the color of my mustache and goatee as I start it for another winter season.

1) The deer are pointing toward a cold winter. Normally I talk to couple of buddies who hunt to see how big the deer are during the hunting season which I did but really didn’t need to do this year. In recent months I’ve had at least 4 deer dart in front of the car, one which had to have nicked the car as I slammed on the breaks. Two of the deer were pretty big and the others were pretty young. My brother-in-law’s buddy got a 4 pointer which was a little above average size but listening to a guy talk to his friends in a local watering hole I overheard (eavesdropped) him mention to his friends that he shot a 5 pointer that was HUGE! So the deer are making me lean toward a cold and snowy winter.

2) What is it with the caterpillars fur that may predict how the winter will be. Last year I mentioned that I had a casual conversation with a woman who passes by my house everyday as she walks to work. She mention that she thought it would be a mild winter last year, which it was because of the caterpillars coat. Of course being the fool you all know I am I asked her was it a thick coat? Hey, I don’t know if caterpillars have thick and thin coats kind of like dogs. Who knows, maybe they shed them in the summer and grow them thick in the winter. Nope, that wasn’t what she meant. She said that if a caterpillars color is light then it means that the winter will be mild and if it is dark then it will be a cold winter. A cold winter around the GSB cities means Lake Effect Snow of course at least until Lake Erie freezes over. Anyways I saw the woman walking as I was driving and pulled over to give her a ride like many people in the neighborhood do when they see her. It’s about a 2 – 3 mile walk for her. Of course the first question I anxiously asked her was about the caterpillars. What color was the fur this year? Were they light colored or dark. The answer wasn’t really what I was looking for but it will have to do as I make this HIGHLY SCIENTIFIC forecast for this winter. She said she hardly even seen any caterpillars this year. ??????? Does that mean they have already went into hiding from the snow? Did they know it would be a cold November and they went wherever they go earlier than normal? By the way, where exactly do caterpillars go anyways? OK, I know I’m rambling on so she did mention that the few she saw this summer were normal as she got out of the car at her work place. I yelled out what does normal mean as she slowly got lost into the crowd. I’ll take normal color to mean that it will be an average winter but what does the lack of caterpillars mean? Early hibernation? We’ll call that a draw and leave out the data about the caterpillars.

3) The flip of the coin has done well in the past even though I haven’t really talked about it much. I’ll keep this one short. Heads it’s going to be a nasty winter, tails it will be mild. HEADS IT WAS! Enough said!

4) The color of the goatee and mustache. It can’t get any more scientific than that can it? Nothing to do with the fact that I’m getting older than dirt and that the chances are if we go by that it’s going to be a whiter and whiter winter as the winters go by. I just looked in the mirror and NO, IT DIDN’T BREAK! It did look a little more darker than last season though which can only mean one of two things. The Grecian 5 mustache dye hasn’t washed out completely yet or it is going to be an average winter. I’m going with the first choice on this one 😉 Let it Snow!

Don’t forget that I was way off last year and the General kicked my butt on the winter outlook predictions last season but my predictions about a lot of what I thought would happen actually did. I was thinking Nor Easter’s last season and they did indeed happen as I predicted. The only problem was that the air was too warm so most of the storms were either rain, freezing rain or sleet. If the temperatures were just a few degrees colder we all would have had some awesome snow events. Unfortunately most of those storms never panned out.

I think this season it will be cold enough for a few of the Nor Easter’s to produce some decent snowfall this season but I like something even more. I’m liking the way the cold air seems to be dropping from Canada so far. I’m liking the flow of the winds coming from the North West which in my opinion will continue and this is based on nothing but intuition. That’s going to make for some good lake effect snow this season and a lot of it.

So here it is in a snowflake! Colder than normal at least thru December, January and February. Above average snow snow for all of the Golden Snowball cities including Albany. Will there be a new king of the snow hill come the end of the 2008 – 2009 winter snow season? Remember last year was a close race right to the end and I think this season will be no different.

Here is the prediction for the winner of the 2008 – 2009 Golden Snowball contest:

Rochester – 147 inches
Syracuse – 143 inches
Buffalo – 131 inches
Binghamton – 111 inches
Albany – 68 inches

Possible Long shot of Winning the Contest – Binghamton if the Nor Easters play out and also if the winds keep coming out of the north to reach Bingo!

WInter Outlook Prediction – Colder than Normal and Snowier than Normal Winter! Would you expect anything less from me?

With that all said, remember the source and how clueless I normally am. Have a Safe Winter and as always Snow Means Slow, take it slow this snow season everyone.

Wow… Depressing is the key word for Buffalo’s snowfall so far this season. While the Southern Tier of WNY has seen near record November snowfall, Buffalo only has a lousy 6 inches to show, most of which has been bursts of lake effect off Lake Ontario. Usually November brings storm tracks that tend to have west – southwest flows when the cold air surges down, however this year has seen an unusually higher number of early season storms brining in more late winter northwest flows which has benifited the other cities early in this year’s contest. All I can say is Buffalo better get in gear and quick! Lake Erie is already down to 40 degrees, 4 degrees below average and if this cold weather continues to dominate it won’t be much longer before the lake starts to ice up early this year.

As depressing as this year has been I’ve been seeing a good deal of snow now that I am working down in Springville this year, about 30 miles south of Buffalo. We’ve already seen a good 30 inches so far. Amazing how I can leave my house in the morning looking at green grass and a 25 minute drive down the road can lead me to 2 foot deep snow.

Still I am rather concerned for Buffalo as if things don’t change we could be looking at a snow, well more of a lack of snow.. disaster this season. I know it’s early but I might have to schedule an emergency snow dance ASAP.

Every year http://www.newx-forecasts.com/ has a snowfall and storm contest based on snow totals for several different cities. It’s a pretty cool contest and it’s free to join. Unlike here they actually give away prizes 😉

I did it last year and with my usual expert forecasting skills placed close to the bottom of the bunch. Go Figure huh. Anyways like I said it’s a fun contest to help pass the winter by and they also have several single storm contests, normally when a Nor Easter is brewing throughout the season.

You can read the rules at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES and also join the 8th annual contest there. They don’t spam and the only emails you get is to let you know there is a contest going on if the possibility of a storm coming exists.

Have fun and Good Luck. You must enter your city snowfall estimates no later than 11:59 PM tomorrow, 11/30/08.