Visitors on the Golden Snow Globe may recall my forecasting bits from last season. The basic idea was to make 2 forecasts in each post: one for somewhere in New York state and one for somewhere else in the country. There were 20 posts, or 40 forecasts, in all. The goal was to have an accuracy of 90% or better. The feature was called The Golden SnowCast. I’ve worked on some tweaks, and coming soon, I’ll begin forecasting once again.
The first change is that I’ll be doing two types of forecasting, long range and short range, instead of just one like last year. Short range basically follows the same format as last year’s Golden SnowCast: I’ll forecast for a few days away, usually weekends. The long range forecast will involve a season outlook (basically, the end of March) and predictions for January, February and March.
Secondly, the verification system has been changed. Last year, it was either right or wrong, no in between. This year, I’m introducing a target based system. Each forecast will have three different categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss. A Bull’s Eye is worth 2 points, On Target is worth 1 and a Complete Miss is worth 0. The goal will be to be at 1.00 or better by season’s end.
Third, instead of calling the zones New York State and World, they are now Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe. Last year, most of the NYS forecasts involved the GSB cities, and the World forecasts mostly involved other U.S. cities, so this is just a minor change really. Each zone’s forecast will be posted on the respective sites.
Finally, I’ll be taking suggestions into account when making the forecasts. Last year, we had a feature called Stump the Weather Chump. While that will stay this year, I figure we can expand on that this year. Basically, if a suggestion fits into the forecasting features, I’ll try to use it there. If not, it’ll be used as a Stump the Weather Chump challenge.
I’m sure all of this will make more sense as the forecasting begins. I plan on doing a season outlook on New Year’s Eve, and the January look on New Year’s Day. The first weekend forecast will be next week.
Happy Holidays everyone!
