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January 2012 snowfall stats

Posted by Stephen on February 3, 2012
Posted in: new york snowfall, snow records, snow totals. Tagged: .

Well, look at that, it’s February! Time to take a look back at January’s snowfall for the GSB cities.

Albany: 7.5
Binghamton: 17.2
Buffalo: 20.8
Rochester: 19.9
Syracuse: 24.6

The big winner was Syracuse with just over 2 feet of snow! Um…what the heck kind of January was that? All of the GSB cities were below their average for the month! Wow. Let’s go a little bit deeper than just snowfall and check the precipitation stats.

Albany: 2.26
Binghamton: 3.04
Buffalo: 4.42
Rochester: 3.32
Syracuse: 3.88

For comparison sake, here is each city’s average precipitation for January:

Albany: 2.59
Binghamton: 2.45
Buffalo: 3.18
Rochester: 2.41
Syracuse: 2.50

Four of the GSB cities had above average precipitation, and Albany was pretty close to average. It just didn’t fall as snow. A bit colder weather (ok, A LOT MORE colder weather), and we may have been talking about some decent snowfall numbers for the month.

Either way, it’s been a very snowless season so far. But I can’t shake the feeling that will change at some point this season. I mean, it can’t be like this the whole season…can it?

Hey, have a great weekend everyone! Enjoy the Super Bowl!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Jan. 29, 2012

Posted by Stephen on January 27, 2012
Posted in: forecasts. Tagged: .

For the 3rd time this month, it’s another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. Before I get into the outlook though, I have to check how the previous one fared.

That forecast was for the 12th and 13th, with anticipated accumulations being 1-6 inches. If all five GSB cities were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 in range would end up being On Target.

Here’s how much snow each city had as a 2 day total:

Albany: 2.6
Binghamton: 5.5
Buffalo: 6.4
Rochester: 5.5
Syracuse: 12.1

Buffalo was just over while Syracuse was was the big winner of the two days. The other three ended up in range, so it’s On Target.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.25
SITD 0 0 1 0
PBR 0 1 1 1
Total 0 1 2 1

I’m finally on the board, but still a ways away from the 1.00 average. I could really use a Bull’s Eye, so here it goes!

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Jan. 13, 2012

Posted by Stephen on January 11, 2012
Posted in: forecasts. Tagged: .

Looks like the Upstate NY region is going to get some snow for the end of the week. Before we get into that though, it’s a look at the previous forecast.

I believed Syracuse would take the lead by at least 2 inches at the end of the 3rd, but 4 or more would be a Bull’s Eye. Syracuse did in fact take the lead…but by how much?

Syracuse: 12.5
Binghamton: 12.2

Not enough. Turns out, Syracuse got about what I thought they would, but I forgot to take Binghamton’s snowfall during that time into account. That’s quite a mistake to make when comparing the 2 cities, right? Sheesh.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.00
SITD 0 0 1 0
PBR 0 0 1 0
Total 0 0 2 0

Still looking for points of any kind. With that in mind, here’s the latest forecast:

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.

Have a great end to the work week everyone! And maybe I’ll get on the board this time!

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: January 2012

Posted by Stephen on January 9, 2012
Posted in: forecasts. Tagged: .

What’s always late and rarely great? Shot In The Dark Forecasts of course! Time to check out just how bad December’s outlook was and try to do better with January’s.

For December, I said the rankings would be flipped for a Bull’s Eye. If 3 were in the right spots, that would be On Target. Here’s how they were at the time of the forecast:
Albany
Binghamton
Syracuse
Rochester
Buffalo

So, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Binghamton, Albany is the order I’m looking for…here’s how it was at the end of December…

Binghamton 9.9
Syracuse 7.2
Albany 6.1
Rochester 5.2
Buffalo 3.8

I would have been better off saying the rankings would remain the same as none of the cities ended up in their predicted spot. I have a feeling it’s going to be that kind of season.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.00
SITD 0 0 1 0
PBR 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 1 0

With that out of the way, time for the January outlook, and it may be the biggest “no duh!” one ever! Hey, at this point, I need as many points as I can get to make up for that dud of a forecast.

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 is a foot or more below average, snowfall for January.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for January.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great January everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Jan. 3, 2012

Posted by Stephen on January 1, 2012
Posted in: forecasts. Tagged: .

Happy New Year everyone!

It was a very quiet December, so much so that I ended up having no Point Blank Range Forecasts for the entire month. We’re starting January, and 2012 for that matter, off with a bang though!

Those who are familiar with my PBR Forecasts know that I try to include several cities in these. But with the slow start to the season, I’m at the point where I just want to get forecasts done, even if that means going with just one city.

The first PBR forecast involves Syracuse, as there is the potential for lake effect snow Monday night into Tuesday. At last check, Syracuse is behind Binghamton by 2.7 inches, and I believe they will make that up with his storm.

Bull’s Eye: Syracuse takes the lead by 4 or more inches at the end of Tuesday.
On Target: Syracuse takes the lead by 2 to 4 inches at the end of Tuesday.
Complete Miss: Syracuse takes the lead by 2 or fewer inches, or trails, at the end of Tuesday.

Have a great week, and here’s to a great 2012!

Least Snowiest Decembers for GSB cities

Posted by Stephen on December 29, 2011
Posted in: Golden Snowball.

As we all know, it has been a very quiet month snow-wise this December. In fact, the city with the most snow this month is Binghamton, with 6.7 inches. The least snowiest December among the five cities is Albany, with less than an inch. This got us thinking…what are the top 5 least snowy Decembers for each of the GSB cities? After a little bit of research, here they are!

Albany:
Trace (1928 and 1895)
0.3 (2006)
0.5 (1931)
0.6 (1943)

Binghamton:
4.0 (1994)
4.2 (2006)
4.7 (1957)
5.4 (1965)
6.2 (1998)

Buffalo:
1.1 (1891 and 1889)
1.7 (1943)
2.9 (1931)
3.4 (1896)

Rochester:
2.6 (1939 and 1928)
4.1 (1932)
4.3 (1936)
4.7 (1891)

Syracuse:
2.7 (1931)
2.8 (1947)
3.4 (1932)
5.2 (1924)
5.9 (1994)

As some of our readers probably know, when I did the seasonal snow rankings last Winter, I used the 1951-52 season as a starting point. That was to sort of make it an even playing field as that was the first season available with data for all five GSB cities. One of the reasons was to compare rankings by city (as an example: City A is having their 15th snowiest season, while City B is at their 26th). It wouldn’t be “fair” if one city’s records went back 50 years while another one went back 100 years or more. This time around, I decided to go with all available seasons. Since I’m not comparing each other’s rankings (that might come later) with each other, I believed this to be the way to go. As such, I should mention that the period of record can vary greatly city to city. Albany (1874), Buffalo (1871) and Rochester (1871) have a much earlier starting point than Binghamton (1951) and, to a lesser extent, Syracuse (1902).

By the way, with 4.2 inches of snow so far, Rochester could crack the top 5 of their least snowiest seasons! A half an inch or less is what it’ll take these last few days of the month.