With this season’s Golden Snowball contest just about over, I figured this would be the best time to recap the forecasts. There are still 2 forecasts left to show results, so let’s get to it!
The first one is the PBR forecast from way back in early March. That one called for less than 2 inches of snow for March 9 and 10. If all five had less than 2 inches, it’s a Bull’s Eye. A majority in range would be On Target. Here are the two day totals for the five cities:
Syracuse was the only one over 2 inches of snow for that time period, so it is an On Target forecast.
Up next is the SITD for the month of March. In that, I was expecting more days with highs of 60 or higher than days with an inch or more. All five would be Bull’s Eye while a majority would have been On Target. Here are the total number of days over 60:
And here are the total number of days with more than an inch of snow:
This is a Bull’s Eye and it wasn’t close at all. At the time I made the forecast, it seemed like a gutsy pick. But the second half of the month is what brought about the big difference.
So with those all set, here is the final results for the season:
|GSB Forecast Results|
|Forecasts||Bull’s Eye||On Target||Complete Miss||Points|
The 1.19 average is well above the 1.00 goal set at the beginning of the year! It was the Shot In The Dark forecasts that pushed me over the top, accounting for over 63% of the total. So, for next season will be pushed up to that 1.19 mark. One place for improvement is definitely the Point Blank Range forecasts as I only earned 7 points in 8 predictions.
Enjoy the offseason everyone!