With this season’s Golden Snowball contest just about over, I figured this would be the best time to recap the forecasts. There are still 2 forecasts left to show results, so let’s get to it!

The first one is the PBR forecast from way back in early March. That one called for less than 2 inches of snow for March 9 and 10. If all five had less than 2 inches, it’s a Bull’s Eye. A majority in range would be On Target. Here are the two day totals for the five cities:

Albany: 0.3
Binghamton: 1.0
Buffalo: 0.3
Rochester: 0.5
Syracuse: 4.0

Syracuse was the only one over 2 inches of snow for that time period, so it is an On Target forecast.

Up next is the SITD for the month of March. In that, I was expecting more days with highs of 60 or higher than days with an inch or more. All five would be Bull’s Eye while a majority would have been On Target. Here are the total number of days over 60:

Albany: 11
Binghamton: 16
Buffalo: 15
Rochester: 18
Syracuse: 16

And here are the total number of days with more than an inch of snow:

Albany: 1
Binghamton: 1
Buffalo: 0
Rochester: 2
Syracuse: 4

This is a Bull’s Eye and it wasn’t close at all. At the time I made the forecast, it seemed like a gutsy pick. But the second half of the month is what brought about the big difference.

So with those all set, here is the final results for the season:

The 1.19 average is well above the 1.00 goal set at the beginning of the year! It was the Shot In The Dark forecasts that pushed me over the top, accounting for over 63% of the total. So, for next season will be pushed up to that 1.19 mark. One place for improvement is definitely the Point Blank Range forecasts as I only earned 7 points in 8 predictions.

Enjoy the offseason everyone!

Before I dive into the usual stuff with the PBR, one announcement. I have decided to cancel the remainder of the PBR and SITD forecasts. So, instead of 10 PBR and 5 SITD, I’m doing 8 PBR and 4 SITD forecasts. Given the very low snowfall totals this season, I feel that it is quite appropriate to also lower the number of snow forecasts.

That means, this is the final PBR forecast of the 2011-12 season! It’s another “little or no snow” forecast, which is also fitting given the lack of snow all season. Before I get into that, it’s a look at the previous forecast.

The most recent outlook called for 2-6 inches of snow between February 29th and March 1st for Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse. If all three were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. 2 out of 3 in range is On Target. Here are the totals:

Albany: 8.8
Binghamton: 2.2
Syracuse: 2.2

Albany was the only one out of range, so it is On Target. By the way, the 4.0 inches for Albany on the 29th was a record for the date.

The On Target forecast keeps me above the 1.00 average. Speaking of that, the target for total points is now 16. So I need this forecast to be a Bull’s Eye, or the SITD forecast to be at least On Target to be at the 1.00 goal for the end of the season.

Now it’s time for the final forecast. This one involves all the cities and, as mentioned earlier, does not have much in the way of snowfall totals.

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have less than 2 inches of snow through Saturday.
On Target: A majority of the cities have less than 2 inches of snow through Saturday.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Three SITD forecasts down, 2 to go. The March edition features a bit of a twist…but we’ll get into that a little bit later. But first, it’s a look back at the February forecast.

The February outlook once again involved below average snowfall. If all five GSB cities had below average snowfall, or at least one of them was below average by 10 or more inches, that would be a Bull’s Eye. A majority with below average snowfall would be On Target.

Here are the snowfall totals for February, with average in parenthesis:

Albany: 4.6 (12.4)
Binghamton: 11.6 (17.1)
Buffalo: 9.6 (17.3)
Rochester: 27.3 (21.5)
Syracuse: 11.5 (25.3)

Rochester was above average, but Syracuse was almost 14 inches below average for February. As a result, this is a Bull’s Eye forecast!

That’s my second straight Bull’s Eye in the SITD forecasts, and it brings me over the 1.00 goal for the first time this season!

Now it’s time for the March outlook. We have warmer weather on tap, and I thought it’d be fun to compare high temperatures with snowfall. So, the March outlook involves days with high temperatures 60 degrees or higher and days with snowfall of an inch or more.

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have more days with 60+ degree temperatures than snowfall of an inch or more in March.
On Target: A majority of the cities have more days with 60+ degree temperatures than snowfall of an inch or more in March.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great March everyone!

A snow event is expected for Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse for the next couple of days. For Buffalo and Rochester, it looks like mostly rain, so they are sitting out of this edition. But we’ll get to that later. Up first is a look at how the last prediction fared.

That previous outlook called for 2-6 inches of snow from the 24th to the 26th. If all five fell in range, that would be a Bull’s Eye. Three or four in range would be On Target. Here are the totals:

Albany: Trace
Binghamton: 4.4
Buffalo: 1.0
Rochester: 4.0
Syracuse: 4.3

Three out of five were in range, so that’s On Target.

With that, the average moves up slightly to 0.9, just below the 1.00 goal.

Now on to this edition, which, as mentioned at the top, features three of the GSB cities: Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse.

Bull’s Eye Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse will have 2-6 inches of snow from Wednesday through Thursday.
On Target Two of the three will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Whether you’re in the snow or not, be sure to enjoy the Leap Day tomorrow!

I’m continuing my effort to quickly get through the PBR portion of the forecasting features, and this time there’s actually snow involved! Before we get into that, it’s time to check out how the previous forecast fared.

The previous outlook called for less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend. All five GSB cities in range is a Bull’s Eye while 3 or 4 would be On Target. Here are the totals.

Albany: 0.3
Binghamton: 0.4
Buffalo: 0.6
Rochester: 1.5
Syracuse: 0.5

All fell in range, so that’s a Bull’s Eye!

And a very timely Bull’s Eye it is! The average is now up to 0.89, just shy of the 1.00 goal for the end of the season.

Now to try to build on that momentum with the new forecast, which involves snow totals for all GSB cities over the 3 day period.

Bull’s Eye All GSB cities will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Before I get into the whole PBR part of the post, a couple of notes.

First off, with how little snow we’ve had this season, I think I’m going to be making alterations to my plan as we go. The idea was to have 5 months of forecasting options for 10 PBR forecasts, December through April. December was a bust, and I can’t imagine April being that much better. So now I’m going to try to squeeze in the remaining forecasts as quickly as possible. That way I can get most, if not all, of the forecasts done by the end of March. This will be forecast 5, so I have about a month and a half to get 4 or 5 more forecasts done. As a result, I’ll probably end up doing a few “little or no snowfall” forecasts…including this one.

Finally, for those of you who have just started coming to the site, I figured I’d explain just what the PBR forecasts are. Point Blank Range forecasts are predictions made generally 1-3 days in advance. All forecasts made are with complete certainty, no waffle words such as “chance of” or “likely”…and, I keep track of how the forecasts have fared. There are 3 scoring ranges with any PBR forecast: Bull’s Eye (2 points), On Target (1 point) and Complete Miss (0 points). On Target is more or less what I anticipate to happen, while a Bull’s Eye is like a bonus. The goal for the end of the season is to average “On Target”, or 1.00 when this and the Shot In The Dark forecast results are combined. SITD forecasts are like PBRs, except done monthly and double points.

With that out of the way, let’s get into how the last forecast fared. That called for a snowfall totals to range between 1-6 inches for the 11th and 12th. If all five GSB cities were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. On Target was a majority of the GSB cities in range. Here are the two day totals:

Albany: 0.2
Binghamton: 3.3
Buffalo: 4.0
Rochester: 15.3
Syracuse: 3.9

Rochester blew the forecast away, due to 10.3 inches falling on Sunday. Amazingly enough, that was not a record for the date. That belongs to 1910, in which 16 inches fell. Despite this, and Albany going under an inch, the forecast still managed to fall in the On Target category.

As mentioned up top, this is a “little snow” forecast. With the snow event well to the south, I am not anticipating much snowfall for the GSB cities this weekend.

Bull’s Eye All GSB cities will have less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend.
Complete Miss Any other result.