forecasts

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: December 2011

Posted by Stephen on December 5, 2011
Posted in: forecasts. Tagged: .

It’s that time again! Well, actually, that time was a few days ago, but after a bit of a delay, I’m finally ready for the snow season. With that comes the forecasts. First a bit of a reminder of what exactly is going on for those new to this, along with a few changes.

At times throughout the season, I will prepare different types of forecasts. There will be 10 short term forecasts (about 2-3 days) called Point Blank Range and 5 long term (about a month) called Shot In The Dark. The idea behind each forecast is to be a bit different than you’d see in most forecasts on TV. What does that mean? No waffle words like “chance of” or “likely” when I make a forecast, it will be definitive. Also, at the beginning of each following forecast, I will look back and see how the forecast fared. Each forecast will fall into one of three categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss.

Now on to the changes for this season. First off, I will not be doing a season outlook. Instead, I will be doing a long term forecast for 5 months, December through April. Secondly, the two sites, Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe, will be kept separate. In previous years, I’d try to find something that would work for both New York State and elsewhere at the same time. More often than not, I’d only be able to have a snow forecast for one area. So this gives me more flexibility. If I need to make a GSB forecast on a Tuesday and a GSG forecast on a Friday, or if it’s weeks in between, then that would work this year. And finally, I’m doubling the points for the Shot In The Dark forecasts. So now it’s 4 points for a Bull’s Eye, 2 for On Target and 0 for a Complete Miss. The goal for the end of the season will remain the same: 1.00 average or better (it worked out that even with this change my forecasts last season didn’t mean the 1.00 mark, so that is the goal again this season).

Now that’s out of the way, it’s time for the first Shot In The Dark Forecast of the season!

The “big 3” of Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse are currently behind Albany and Binghamton in the early stages of the snow race. Of course that will not last once the lake effect machine comes into play. It wouldn’t surprise me if the standings flipped at the end of the month, so that’s what I’m going with for this month.

Bull’s Eye: The standings at the end of the month will be Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Binghamton, Albany.
On Target: Three of the cities end up in their forecasted position.
Complete Miss: 2 or fewer cities end up in their forecasted position.

Have a great week everyone!

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011 Wrap Up

Posted by Stephen on May 29, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

Yes, I know, it’s the end of May, not really time to be thinking about snow right now. That’s why now is the perfect time to have the SITD Wrap Up!

Up first is the April forecast, which involved rankings for the five GSB cities. Below are the rankings as of the end of April, with the range I had given them in parenthesis.

Albany: 9th (5-9)
Binghamton: 6th (3-6)
Buffalo: 15th (13-19)
Rochester: 12th (8-12)
Syracuse: 4th (3-4)

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities are within the given ranges.
On Target: Three or four are in the given ranges.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the given ranges.

All five were in range, with 4 of them being just making it. That’s a Bull’s Eye!

Finally, it’s the Season outlook, which was made in the beginning of January. It involved the rankings of the five cities in this contest. Below are the cities’ placements with my predicted rank in parenthesis.

1. Syracuse (1)
2. Rochester (2)
3. Binghamton (3)
4. Buffalo (4)
5. Albany (5)

Bull’s Eye: The standings at the end of April will be Syracuse, Rochester, Binghamton, Buffalo and Albany.
On Target: Three are in the forecast spots.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the forecast spots.

All five were in the position I had predicted, so that is another Bull’s Eye!

Unfortunately, these two Bull’s Eye forecasts were not enough to reach my 1.00 goal. The April and Season forecasts over on GSG were Complete Miss outlooks, so my average for the season is 0.90, the same as the Point Blank Range! This time, it was the GSG forecasts that let me down, as only one forecast was a Bull’s Eye while three were of the Complete Miss category. On the GSB side, three were Bull’s Eyes and two were Complete Misses.

So, the goal for next season will be the same this one, 1.00 or better.

Speaking of next season, I have some changes in mind that I’d like to get for the 2011-12 snow season. First and foremost, I got off to a late start, so I want to get the forecasts started in December and go through March instead of January through April like I did this season. Another idea floating around in my head is to have some sort of video forecast with these, instead of just text. I’ll have to play around with that during the off season. If I can get it to work, it’ll be here next season, if not, then it won’t. I don’t want to change it from text to video mid-season. All this been said, I feel like the current forecast structure is a keeper, so I will not be changing it next season.

Enjoy the off season everyone!

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011 Update

Posted by Stephen on April 10, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

Got a bit behind where I wanted the updates to be, but here it is now. In this update, I’ll be looking back at the March results, and see where the April outlook stands. It’s about 3 weeks before the SITD Wrap Up, in which the April results will be final, as well as the forecast made at the beginning of the season. The goal is 1.00, when both Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe are combined.

The March forecast involved snowfall for the month compared to the historical average. Below are the snowfall totals for the five cities, with their respective averages in parenthesis.

Albany: 8.8 (10.9)
Binghamton: 25.9 (14.2)
Buffalo: 13.3 (12.4)
Rochester: 15.1 (16.6)
Syracuse: 18.5 (18.8)

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities will have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Three GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss: Two or less GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.

I know there were some comments at the beginning of the month that basically said this was a no-brainer. Well, this season, there is no such thing as a no-brainer this season as only 2 of the 5 were above average for March.

With both GSB and GSG giving me Complete Miss outlooks for March, my average has now dropped to 0.83, below the goal of 1.00. Of the four remaining results, it looks like I’ll be needing at least 2 Bull’s Eye predictions to get to the goal.

With that in mind, here’s a look at April so far. I had ranges for where I believed each of the 5 GSB cities would be for the end of April, basically the end of the snow season. Below are their current rankings (as of the 9th), with the range I had given them in parenthesis.

Albany: 9th (5-9)
Binghamton: 6th (3-6)
Buffalo: 16th (13-19)
Rochester: 12th (8-12)
Syracuse: 4th (3-4)

Right now, all five are in the ranges I set. The best way for me to get a Bull’s Eye with this forecast is for there to be no more snow for the next few weeks. I’m sure most people would be fine with that!

Hey, have a great week everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Winter 2011 Wrap Up

Posted by Stephen on April 3, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

With the silliness that comes with the start of April out of the way (yes, the last post was an April Fool’s Day joke!), it’s time to see just how much of a joke this season’s Point Blank Range Forecasts were.

To start, it’s a look at the final forecast of the season: temperatures, and their relation to average. Below are the number of days the GSB cities had high temperatures below average from the 29th to the 30th.

Albany: 1
Binghamton: 1
Buffalo: 2
Rochester: 2
Syracuse: 1

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities have below average highs both days.
On Target: All five GSB cities have below average highs in one day.
Complete Miss: Any GSB city has above average highs both days.

All five were below average on the 29th, but only Buffalo and Rochester were below average on the 30th. So, the final PBR Forecast of the season was On Target.

As a result, I do not meet the 1.00 average goal set at the beginning of the season. It was these forecasts that did me in this season, as of the 10 forecasts, only 1 was a Bull’s Eye while 5 earned the Complete Miss designation. Golden Snow Globe forecasts were almost the exact opposite: 1 was a Complete Miss while 3 were in the Bull’s Eye category. For the grand total, it’s 18 points out of 20 forecasts, a 0.90 average.

So, the goal for next season will be the same as this season: 1.00 or better.

Tomorrow, I will try to get the Shot In The Dark Forecast results in for March. The SITD have 2 forecasts waiting for verification: the April outlook and the one done back in January for the entire Winter season. I’ll try to get the full SITD wrap up done in the next few weeks.

Have a great week everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Mar. 29-30

Posted by Stephen on March 27, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

It’s the last Point Blank Range Forecast of the season, and the way the forecasts have been, the end couldn’t have come soon enough. Details on the last forecast to come, but first, as always, is the look back at the last outlook.

The previous prediction involved snowfall on the 23rd and 24th. Below are the totals for those 2 days.

Albany: 0.6
Binghamton: 5.2
Buffalo: 7.0
Rochester: 6.8
Syracuse: 3.9

Bull’s Eye: Binghamton has more snow than any other GSB city.
On Target: Binghamton has more snow than 3 of the other GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Oh look! Another Complete Miss! That’s 5 for the season. Combined with the On Target over at Golden Snow Globe, I’m below the 1.00 goal set before the season. The only way I can reach it now is with 2 Bull’s Eye predictions. With 1 forecast left, it’s all or nothing: both GSB and GSG forecasts must be Bull’s Eyes or it is an unsuccessful season for me, at least as far as the PBR Forecasts are concerned.

Now on to this forecast, which will focus on temperatures. Hey, I need to give myself some chance at a Bull’s Eye. Temperatures were the only Bull’s Eye here, so that’s what I’m going with when I need it most.

Cooler temperatures are in store for the GSB cities for most of the week. Temperatures should be below average for all GSB cities in at least one of the days.

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities have below average highs both days.
On Target: All five GSB cities have below average highs in one day.
Complete Miss: Any GSB city has above average highs both days.

Remember to check out Golden Snow Globe for the forecast over there as well. Enjoy the week everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Mar. 23-24

Posted by Stephen on March 22, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

Happy Spring everyone! Ah, but just because the calendar says it’s a new season, doesn’t mean the weather has to go with it. One more push of snow is coming to the GSB cities. My forecast on that is to come, but first a look back at the last prediction.

The previous PBR forecast involved temperatures for the GSB cities. Below is the low temperatures for the two days, 11th first with 13th in parenthesis.

Albany: 53 (43)
Binghamton: 44 (38)
Buffalo: 34 (34)
Rochester: 49 (38)
Syracuse: 43 (40)

Bull’s Eye: Friday’s high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday’s for all five GSB cities.
On Target: Friday’s high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday’s for 3 of the five GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Friday’s high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday’s less than 3 of the five GSB cities.

Only two cities had double digit differences, so this is a Complete Miss, the 4th of the season.

Despite this, my average went up, thanks to a Bull’s Eye on Golden Snow Globe. Is it weird that I can forecast better for different parts of the U.S. than I can for my home state? Maybe it’s just the nature of our weather, or the forecasts themselves. I’m still below the 1.00 goal though, and with 2 forecasts left, there is not much room for another Complete Miss.

Now on to this forecast which involves snowfall. It looks like Binghamton will be the hardest hit among the GSB cities. In previous forecasts, I would take one city over the combined totals of the other four. Those would backfire badly. I’ve finally learned my lesson, going a little more cautious this time.

Bull’s Eye: Binghamton has more snow than any other GSB city.
On Target: Binghamton has more snow than 3 of the other GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Be sure to check out the Golden Snow Globe site to see the forecast there as well.