This weekend’s outlook is a bit of a modification on one done earlier. More details are available after the look back at the last forecast.

The January 21-23 forecast involved low temperatures for the weekend in all 5 GSB cities. Below are their coldest lows of the weekend.

Albany: -6 (11:59pm Jan 23)
Binghamton: -4 (11:59pm Jan 23)
Buffalo: -5 (10:47pm Jan 23)
Rochester: -8 (11:59pm Jan 23)
Syracuse: -5 (11:48pm Jan 23)

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.
On Target: Three or four of the GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer of the GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.

All five were below 0 late Sunday, so the forecast was a Bull’s Eye.

In all, it was a solid weekend as the Bull’s Eye here was matched with an On Target forecast over on GSG. As a result, both site are at 1 each Bull’s Eye, On Target and Complete Miss, giving me an average of 1.00 for the season.

Now onto this weekend’s outlook. Snow showers seem to be in store for the southern and eastern portions of the state, so Albany and Binghamton should have more snow than the other three GSB cities this weekend.

Bull’s Eye: Albany and Binghamton combine for more snow than the other three GSB cities’ combined total.
On Target: Albany and Binghamton have more snow than the other three GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Albany or Binghamton have less snow than at least one of the other GSB cities.

Be sure to check out the Golden Snow Globe site for that forecast update. Have a great weekend everyone!

It’s February, so it’s time for a new edition of Shot In The Dark Forecasts. This month’s focus is on milestones for some cities. But before we get into that, it’s a look back at January.

January’s outlook was based on snowfall for Albany, Binghamton and Buffalo, compared to the start of the season. Below are the month’s totals, with snowfall in the beginning of the season in parenthesis.

Albany: 34.4 (13.0)
Binghamton: 25.0 (33.2)
Buffalo: 29.8 (33.6)

Bull’s Eye: Albany, Binghamton and Buffalo will at least double their current snowfall totals by month’s end.
On Target: 2 of the three double their current snowfall totals.
Complete Miss: 1 or fewer double their current snowfall totals.

Albany was the only one that had more snow in January than the start, so it was a Complete Miss. If only Binghamton and Buffalo could have kept up with Albany. 😉

While this one was a Complete Miss, the GSG forecast was a Bull’s Eye. As a result, my average is at 1.00, exactly the goal set at the start.

Now onto this month’s outlook. Since January focused on Albany, Binghamton and Buffalo, February will be about Rochester and Syracuse. For the month, Rochester averages about 20 inches while Syracuse averages about 24. These averages would put Rochester at about 100 inches, with Syracuse at around 140. I believe Rochester will reach the 100 mark, and Syracuse could see 150, by month’s end.

Bull’s Eye: Rochester reaches 100, and Syracuse hits 150, by the end of the month.
On Target: Rochester reaches 100 by the end of the month.
Complete Miss: Rochester stays under 100 at the end of the month.

Be sure to check out the Golden Snow Globe site to see that edition as well. I will resume the Point Blank Range Forecasts tomorrow.

When words such as “frigid” and “arctic” are used to describe the upcoming temperatures, it might seem like a good idea to go on vacation. For those of us unable to make such a move, however, we’re stuck with the chill. On that note, this edition of the Point Blank Range Forecasts focuses on the weekend’s temperatures. Before we get into that though, it is a look back to see how the past forecast fared.

Last PBR focused on snowfall for the weekend in Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. Below are the snow totals for each of the three cities.

Buffalo: 1.8
Rochester: 2.6
Syracuse: 8.3

Bull’s Eye: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each have snowfall totals of at least 6 inches for the weekend.
On Target: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each have snowfall totals of at least 3 inches for the weekend.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Syracuse was the only one to reach either the 3 or 6 inch mark, so this is a Complete Miss.

A tough weekend for me as both the GSB and GSG forecasts resulted in Complete Miss outlooks. That brings my average down to 0.75, below the goal for the end of the season. There are eight more forecasts remaining this season, so I still have plenty of time to reach that mark.

Now on to this weekend’s outlook. As mentioned earlier, this forecast focuses on the anticipated cold temperatures. I believe that a majority of the GSB cities will be below 0 this weekend, Friday night through Sunday.

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.
On Target: Three or four of the GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer of the GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.

Be sure to check out the Golden Snow Globe site for that update. Have a great weekend everyone, and try to stay warm!

1/16 – Just a heads up that Syracuse is over the 100 inch mark as of this morning 🙂 Now we bring you back to Stephen )p

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With Martin Luther King Day on Monday, it’s a three day weekend for most people. So, I figured this edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts should be for Sunday through Monday. Before we get into this weekend’s outlook though, it’s a check of the outcome for the previous forecasts.

Last weekend’s GSB outlook involved snowfall for all five GSB cities. Below is the snowfall totals for each.

Albany: 7.7
Binghamton: 5.3
Buffalo: 3.5
Rochester: 4.2
Syracuse: 6.1

Bull’s Eye: Albany has more snowfall this weekend than the other GSB cities combined.
On Target: Albany has more snowfall this weekend than any other GSB city.
Complete Miss: At least one GSB city has more snowfall this weekend than Albany.

Albany had more snow than any other GSB city, but was far below the other 4 cities’ combined total, so the forecast is On Target.

That gives me 1 On Target forecast for the GSB region. Combined with the 1 Bull’s Eye forecast from GSG, I have 3 points out of 2 forecasts, giving me a 1.50 average so far.

Now on to this weekend’s outlook. Indications are that Lake Effect snowfall is in store for Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse this weekend, so the PBR Forecast is for those three cities.

Bull’s Eye: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each have snowfall totals of at least 6 inches for the weekend.
On Target: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each have snowfall totals of at least 3 inches for the weekend.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Remember to check out the Golden Snow Globe site to see that update. Have a great weekend everyone!

Before I get into the first Point Blank Range Forecast of the season, I figured I’d mention what the PBR Forecast is. Basically, a PBR is the exact opposite of the Shot In The Dark forecast in that research has been done while making the forecast, though sometimes it can be from a gut feeling. I also try to keep it from being like a typical forecast that is seen on TV or on other websites.

Albany is a distance last place right now, but from time to time, they could still get more snow in a given period than the other GSB cities. That is exactly what this edition of the Point Blank Range Forecast is featuring.

Bull’s Eye: Albany has more snowfall this weekend than the other GSB cities combined.
On Target: Albany has more snowfall this weekend than any other GSB city.
Complete Miss: At least one GSB city has more snowfall this weekend than Albany.

As always, the GSG forecast is available on the Golden Snow Globe website.

So much for getting the forecasts up by New Year’s. Basically, Shot In the Dark forecasts are a gut reaction, with little to no research involved in the outlook. The seasonal forecast is perhaps the biggest gut reaction of them all, as they involve results about three months away from now.

This time, the Golden Snowball SITD focuses on the standings when the contest is called, usually at the end of April. Syracuse has a big lead, and I’m not sure if another city will be able to catch Syracuse. On the flip side, I have no reason to believe Albany will be anywhere but 5th. The real race seems to be for 2nd, 3rd and 4th. I see Rochester taking 2nd and Binghamton being 3rd.

Bull’s Eye: The standings at the end of April will be Syracuse, Rochester, Binghamton, Buffalo and Albany.
On Target: Three are in the forecast spots.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the forecast spots.

Check the Golden Snow Globe site to see the GSG 2011 Winter Forecast.