I’m way behind in posting and one of the things I wanted to post about was what Jim Teske from channel 9 weather here in Syracuse sent me. Some pretty good snow stats as to what the chances are of a city winning the golden snowball award going into January with the lead. In other words what are the chances of a big come back right now for Rochester, Buffalo or Binghamton. He didn’t factor in Albany and as we all know here, who cares. No offence to Albany of course 😉
Jim went back 20 years and gathered all of the stats for the GSB cities and came up with some great results below. Jim also has a post for discussion going on at the TV 9 Weather section.
Click Image To See Stats
To sum it up the odds are against a city coming back with a city having a big lead at the end of December. That said this season has been somewhat odd considering 2 of the cities, Syracuse and Rochester have already broken a monthly snowfall record in December so who knows. Here is a little of what Jim wrote to me/us.
Jim Teske – I got to thinking whether the city in the lead at the first of the year ends up winning the award most of the time. I looked back at the last 20 years and I found that 12 out of the 20 times that was the case.
I have the lead (or deficit) the ultimate winner had at that point in the season. For the 8 times that someone made a ‘comeback’ the ground they had to make up was not that large except for 2006-07 when Syracuse was behind by 20″ Right now Syracuse is up by about 26″ Also 2001-02 sticks out when Buffalo had their week long lake effect event around Christmas. They were up by 75″!
Click here to read more at the TV 9, Syracuse blog!
Thanks Jim, I really appreciate you sharing your info and great stats with us :))