Bye, Bye Snow Champ Syracuse and Hello Who?

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Happy Valentines Day to all you Snow Birds, I mean Love Birds ;)

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Syracuse who????  Rochester has plowed past Syracuse with the latest update from the National Weather Service.  So far today the Rock has picked up 10.1 inches of snow blowing away the competition for the day.  Binghamton managed to move back into 3rd place but we will see if that lasts long.  I’ll get an update in tomorrow morning when all of the totals for today are up to date.  Good call Dave and Charles and Way To Go Rochester!!!!

The Hunt for Snow Ended in Fulton

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You’ve probably seen or heard of the movie Mr Smith Goes to Washington.  Well Tuesday was a reverse when “Andrea From Washington Came to Syracuse”.  Andrea, who I’ll call Snowless in Washington, is a writer for the Washington Post in Washington, DC who was on a quest to find snow and to hopefully build a snowman. 

She contacted me and a couple others to see if I had any ideas as to where she should begin and said she was going to head toward Binghamton.  So I think and then think some more.  Here I am just outside of a city that is suppose to be one of, if not the snowiest Big city in the country and I couldn’t say come to Syracuse we have tons of the white fluffy gold just laying around.  No, I had to say to Snowless that maybe Fulton or the Tug Hill region may have some.  Yes, it was hard to say Fulton and even embarrassing but I said it. I figured with the snow they got last weekend that there still had to be some leftovers laying around somewhere to the north of Da’Cuse.

In the mean time I noticed that there was a little snow pile in one of the parking lots by my house.  I thought if worst comes to worst I could always take Snowless to one of the bigger parking lots in Syracuse like at one of the malls.  I put a call into Sean Kirst to see if he knew of any snow or even snow banks around in the Syracuse area or around the Clinton Square ice rink.  He told me to hold on while he looked out the window for a look at the ice rink.  I was happy to hear Sean say that there was a small snow pile right next to the rink.  So that was plan A for me but I had to run it by Snowless to see if that was something she could use.  She said she would meet me on Tuesday morning and we would drive around and check it out and then head up to Fulton for some real snow on the ground.

I’m still shaking my head for the fact that here it is a third of the way into February and in all of the Golden Snowball cities no Freaking snow to show off :(   Anyways, Snowless came to my house around noon and off we went on the quest to find snow and build a snowman.  Snowless (Andrea) did write a cool and fun article about her search for snow and she tells the story a lot better than I can.  You can check out the article Here at the Washington Post.

Thanks for a fun day Andrea and if there is a next time I’ll teach ya how to build a snowman ;)

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It’s finally snowing again in the Golden Snowball cities and there was some sliding around in the line-up.  Rochester jumped into 2nd place and Buffalo managed to move into 3rd dropping Binghamton all the way down to 4th place.  Not a whole lot of snow but from what we have seen so far this winter season it’s enough to keep this contest close and the Golden Snowball trophy up for grabs still.

Yesterdays snow stats show:

Albany –  0.2
Syracuse - 0.6
Binghamton –  0.9
Buffalo – 3.5
Rochester – 5.0 inches of snow.

Rochester was the big winner but it’s still snowing in some of the cities and should be interesting to see which city gets the most through tonight and if they can overtake Syracuse for the top spot on the snow hill.  Updates as they come in.

Have a great week all :)

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Feb. 12, 2012

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It’s time for another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. This is the 4th of the season, so I am a little bit behind where I’d like to be at this point. I may need to start forecasting other variables than just snow, but I really wanted to avoid doing that this season. We’ll see as the season continues.

The last PBR forecast called for snow of 1-5 inches from January 28th to the 29th. If all five are in range, it’s a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 in range is On Target. Here’s how they fared:

Albany: 0.0
Binghamton: 1.4
Buffalo: 5.3
Rochester: 4.8
Syracuse: 0.7

Only Binghamton and Rochester were in range, so that’s a Complete Miss. Buffalo and Syracuse were just off the thresholds, so this may be one of the better missed forecasts I’ve had. But a miss is still a miss, no matter how close or far it is.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.71
SITD 1 0 1 4
PBR 0 1 2 1
Total 1 1 3 5

That brings the average down a little. I still have 6 PBRs and 2 SITDs to get done, so there is about half left to go. But looking at the results, I’m going to have to do a little better on these PBRs to have a chance!

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Help Needed Finding Snow – Really

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I got a call from Andrea who writes for a newspaper in Washington, DC.  She’s ready to take a road trip come tomorrow (Monday) in search of snow seeing how they have only received 1.7 inches of snow so far this season.  Here is where your help is needed.

We have nothing on the ground here in Syracuse and from what I’ve heard Binghamton is the same way.  Most likely Buffalo, Rochester and Albany are showing just grass too.  I mentioned to her that Fulton probably has some snow on the ground from the 30+ inches they received about a week ago or at least some decent size snow piles.

The question is, do you have snow on the ground where you live right now?  Does the Tug Hill still have a lot  of snow?  Remember she is coming from DC so the closer to DC the snow is the better rather than Andrea having to drive all the way to Fulton.  If you do have snow on the ground can you post in the comments section and let us know where it is.

This has to be one of my most embarrassing posts ever.  Living in the Syracuse area and I have to ask if there is any snow out there :)   Ok enough said and thanks for any feedback you can give us.

Have a Great Super Bolw Sunday and think of these numbers 3-0 & 8-4.  Go Giants!!!

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: February 2012

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I don’t remember a winter quite like this one, and I’ll be doing something I didn’t think I’d ever do with these forecasts. We’ll get to that later, but first, it’s a look at the January prediction.

Fore January, I was expecting below average snowfall. If all 5 cities were below average, that would be a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 would be On Target. Below are the totals with average in parenthesis.

Albany: 7.5 (17.6)
Binghamton: 17.2 (22.2)
Buffalo: 20.8 (25.3)
Rochester: 19.9 (28.2)
Syracuse: 24.6 (34.0)

All five were below average, Bull’s Eye! Let’s check the standings. Remember that with the SITD forecasts, a Bull’s Eye is worth 4 points.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.83
SITD 1 0 1 4
PBR 0 1 1 1
Total 1 1 2 5

Still not at the 1.00 goal, but I’m getting there. I’m pretty sure the latest PBR was a Complete Miss, but the next Point Blank Range edition will show that result. Either way, I’m doing a bit better now than I was at the last forecast update.

With that out of the way, time for the February outlook, and for what I believe is a first for me, it’s basically a repeat of last month! Hey, if it keeps working, keep using it, right?

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 has 10 inches or more below average, snowfall for February.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for February.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great February everyone!

January 2012 snowfall stats

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Well, look at that, it’s February! Time to take a look back at January’s snowfall for the GSB cities.

Albany: 7.5
Binghamton: 17.2
Buffalo: 20.8
Rochester: 19.9
Syracuse: 24.6

The big winner was Syracuse with just over 2 feet of snow! Um…what the heck kind of January was that? All of the GSB cities were below their average for the month! Wow. Let’s go a little bit deeper than just snowfall and check the precipitation stats.

Albany: 2.26
Binghamton: 3.04
Buffalo: 4.42
Rochester: 3.32
Syracuse: 3.88

For comparison sake, here is each city’s average precipitation for January:

Albany: 2.59
Binghamton: 2.45
Buffalo: 3.18
Rochester: 2.41
Syracuse: 2.50

Four of the GSB cities had above average precipitation, and Albany was pretty close to average. It just didn’t fall as snow. A bit colder weather (ok, A LOT MORE colder weather), and we may have been talking about some decent snowfall numbers for the month.

Either way, it’s been a very snowless season so far. But I can’t shake the feeling that will change at some point this season. I mean, it can’t be like this the whole season…can it?

Hey, have a great weekend everyone! Enjoy the Super Bowl!

Syracuse Still Winning by A Snowflake

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1/30 8:30 pm – All the stats should be up to date right now other than Albany who hasn’t reported this last update.

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Ahhh, the clean, fresh look of a new snowfall.  Something we haven’t been seeing much of this season.  All of the cities including Albany are still in the snow race.  I still have a hard time saying Albany still has a shot at winning this late in the season.  All as it will take is a nice nor’easter or two that hangs to the east of Syracuse and they are golden :)

Buffalo set a date record with 4.4 inches of snow breaking the old record from 1909 of 4.3 inches of snow.  Rochester picked up 4.8 inches yesterday while Syracuse, Binghamton and Albany are showing little or no snow for yesterday but most of their snow if any came during the overnight which isn’t being reported yet.  Syracuse should have several more inches to add to their totals come the next NOAA update and I’m not quite sure about Albany and Bingo.

Our snow contest got a mention in the Wall Street Journal today which is pretty cool IMO.  Meteorologist Eric Holthaus writes some weather articles for the WSJ and gave us a mention.  Thanks Eric :)   You can check it out at http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/01/30/weather-journal-what-even-happened-to-winter/

I’ll update the snow totals when NOAA puts them up later this evening.  Have a Great Monday All :)

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Jan. 29, 2012

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For the 3rd time this month, it’s another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. Before I get into the outlook though, I have to check how the previous one fared.

That forecast was for the 12th and 13th, with anticipated accumulations being 1-6 inches. If all five GSB cities were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 in range would end up being On Target.

Here’s how much snow each city had as a 2 day total:

Albany: 2.6
Binghamton: 5.5
Buffalo: 6.4
Rochester: 5.5
Syracuse: 12.1

Buffalo was just over while Syracuse was was the big winner of the two days. The other three ended up in range, so it’s On Target.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.25
SITD 0 0 1 0
PBR 0 1 1 1
Total 0 1 2 1

I’m finally on the board, but still a ways away from the 1.00 average. I could really use a Bull’s Eye, so here it goes!

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

I Think It’s Time for One More Snow Dance

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Syracuse is still winning by just a few flakes and nearing the end of January the Golden Snowball trophy is still up for grabs.  To be honest I don’t think any of the 5 GSB cities really have an advantage right now which is kind of cool that it’s so close this far into the season.  I think it’s time to do a snow dance once again.  Only 2 per season and this is the last one so lets hope it works.  I’ll post after it’s over which will be in the next day or two.  As always, no media or photos allowed :)

I was just reading around and came across an article that Sean Kirst just put out a little while ago.  Those of you that visit here frequently each season know how much Sean loves our snow contest and is probably the biggest reason why our fun snow race is as popular as it is today.  Last year he even took me out on my Birthday.  Well not exactly out but he made me walk around the freezing snowy city streets, sit in a snow banks for hours to get a good picture and he even made me carry the Golden Snowball trophy the whole time.  OK, truth is it was all fun and neither one of us wanted to carry the trophy because we were both afraid we would drop and break it :(   True story!

Now that would have been a story for sure.  Headlines read “Oracle of Snow Contest Breaks Golden Snowball Trophy”.  Better yet “Award Winning Journalist Sean Kirst Says Oops as Trophy Crashes” . :)   I decided to be the brave one (like I had a choice) and carried it after our attemp to get Dennis Nett, the photographer to carry it failed.  All in all it was a blast though and a Birthday to remember.

Where was I?  Oh yeah, anyways Sean who is a journalist for the Post Standard and Syracuse.com has an article out with his normal witty style and I love how Syracuse Mayor Miner took up a bet with Mayor Ryan of Binghamton.  All in fun and check out Sean’s article Here at Syracuse.com . 

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Have a Great Day All….

Could Least Snowiest Records Be Broken

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I don’t think it’s going to happen but….  Looking at some of the cities least snowiest seasons there is a chance that some of the Golden Snowball cities just may break their records.  Keep in mind that there is still a lot of time left in the snow season but with the lack of snow this season it is still possible.

I know Albany won’t break their record.  Just a good gust of wind should blow enough snow over from Syracuse to put them over their pitiful record of 13.8 inches :)   As for the other cities though you would have to think that it’s possible.  All 4 of the cities have less than half of their least snowiest season on record.  Steve Madsen who resides in Buffalo AKA – the General ;)   Syracuse & Binghamton dates back to 1951 – 52 season.

* ALBANY *
Min – 13.8 inches ( 1912 – 1913 )

* BINGHAMTON *
Min – 47.8 inches ( 1988 – 1989 )

* BUFFALO *
Min  -  22.4 (1889-1890)

* ROCHESTER *
Min  -  29.2  (1932-1933)

* SYRACUSE *
Min – 59.4 inches ( 2001 – 2002 )

Then on another note, the snow contest is still wide open to any of the 5 Goldensnowball cities.  Yup, even Albany has a real chance right now of winning the Golden Snowball trophy which would be the first time ever for them.  I think if that happens then Stephen or Sean Kirst should shave their head :)   In my opinion it’s not looking good for Syracuse right now and this could be the season they go down.  One or two good storms could plow any of the cities way past the others.  Good Luck to all of the GSB cities and hopefully the Snow Gods will bless you with some snow soon ;)

Right now in the National snowfall contest at the Golden Snow Globe site the big 3 from NY are getting their butts kicked :(   Anchorage, AK continues to add to their totals and at last update they were about 65 inches ahead of Syracuse.  I think one of the big 3 will need quite a few storms to catch up but it will be interesting to watch.  I’ll try and update those stats in the next couple of days.

Have a Great Day All and let’s hope this next round of snow due anytime now drops more than they are forecasting :)