It’s time for another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. This is the 4th of the season, so I am a little bit behind where I’d like to be at this point. I may need to start forecasting other variables than just snow, but I really wanted to avoid doing that this season. We’ll see as the season continues.

The last PBR forecast called for snow of 1-5 inches from January 28th to the 29th. If all five are in range, it’s a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 in range is On Target. Here’s how they fared:

Albany: 0.0
Binghamton: 1.4
Buffalo: 5.3
Rochester: 4.8
Syracuse: 0.7

Only Binghamton and Rochester were in range, so that’s a Complete Miss. Buffalo and Syracuse were just off the thresholds, so this may be one of the better missed forecasts I’ve had. But a miss is still a miss, no matter how close or far it is.

That brings the average down a little. I still have 6 PBRs and 2 SITDs to get done, so there is about half left to go. But looking at the results, I’m going to have to do a little better on these PBRs to have a chance!

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

I don’t remember a winter quite like this one, and I’ll be doing something I didn’t think I’d ever do with these forecasts. We’ll get to that later, but first, it’s a look at the January prediction.

Fore January, I was expecting below average snowfall. If all 5 cities were below average, that would be a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 would be On Target. Below are the totals with average in parenthesis.

Albany: 7.5 (17.6)
Binghamton: 17.2 (22.2)
Buffalo: 20.8 (25.3)
Rochester: 19.9 (28.2)
Syracuse: 24.6 (34.0)

All five were below average, Bull’s Eye! Let’s check the standings. Remember that with the SITD forecasts, a Bull’s Eye is worth 4 points.

Still not at the 1.00 goal, but I’m getting there. I’m pretty sure the latest PBR was a Complete Miss, but the next Point Blank Range edition will show that result. Either way, I’m doing a bit better now than I was at the last forecast update.

With that out of the way, time for the February outlook, and for what I believe is a first for me, it’s basically a repeat of last month! Hey, if it keeps working, keep using it, right?

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 has 10 inches or more below average, snowfall for February.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for February.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great February everyone!

For the 3rd time this month, it’s another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. Before I get into the outlook though, I have to check how the previous one fared.

That forecast was for the 12th and 13th, with anticipated accumulations being 1-6 inches. If all five GSB cities were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 in range would end up being On Target.

Here’s how much snow each city had as a 2 day total:

Albany: 2.6
Binghamton: 5.5
Buffalo: 6.4
Rochester: 5.5
Syracuse: 12.1

Buffalo was just over while Syracuse was was the big winner of the two days. The other three ended up in range, so it’s On Target.

I’m finally on the board, but still a ways away from the 1.00 average. I could really use a Bull’s Eye, so here it goes!

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-5 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Looks like the Upstate NY region is going to get some snow for the end of the week. Before we get into that though, it’s a look at the previous forecast.

I believed Syracuse would take the lead by at least 2 inches at the end of the 3rd, but 4 or more would be a Bull’s Eye. Syracuse did in fact take the lead…but by how much?

Syracuse: 12.5
Binghamton: 12.2

Not enough. Turns out, Syracuse got about what I thought they would, but I forgot to take Binghamton’s snowfall during that time into account. That’s quite a mistake to make when comparing the 2 cities, right? Sheesh.

Still looking for points of any kind. With that in mind, here’s the latest forecast:

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.

Have a great end to the work week everyone! And maybe I’ll get on the board this time!

What’s always late and rarely great? Shot In The Dark Forecasts of course! Time to check out just how bad December’s outlook was and try to do better with January’s.

For December, I said the rankings would be flipped for a Bull’s Eye. If 3 were in the right spots, that would be On Target. Here’s how they were at the time of the forecast:
Albany
Binghamton
Syracuse
Rochester
Buffalo

So, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Binghamton, Albany is the order I’m looking for…here’s how it was at the end of December…

Binghamton 9.9
Syracuse 7.2
Albany 6.1
Rochester 5.2
Buffalo 3.8

I would have been better off saying the rankings would remain the same as none of the cities ended up in their predicted spot. I have a feeling it’s going to be that kind of season.

With that out of the way, time for the January outlook, and it may be the biggest “no duh!” one ever! Hey, at this point, I need as many points as I can get to make up for that dud of a forecast.

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 is a foot or more below average, snowfall for January.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for January.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great January everyone!

Happy New Year everyone!

It was a very quiet December, so much so that I ended up having no Point Blank Range Forecasts for the entire month. We’re starting January, and 2012 for that matter, off with a bang though!

Those who are familiar with my PBR Forecasts know that I try to include several cities in these. But with the slow start to the season, I’m at the point where I just want to get forecasts done, even if that means going with just one city.

The first PBR forecast involves Syracuse, as there is the potential for lake effect snow Monday night into Tuesday. At last check, Syracuse is behind Binghamton by 2.7 inches, and I believe they will make that up with his storm.

Bull’s Eye: Syracuse takes the lead by 4 or more inches at the end of Tuesday.
On Target: Syracuse takes the lead by 2 to 4 inches at the end of Tuesday.
Complete Miss: Syracuse takes the lead by 2 or fewer inches, or trails, at the end of Tuesday.

Have a great week, and here’s to a great 2012!