A snow event is expected for Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse for the next couple of days. For Buffalo and Rochester, it looks like mostly rain, so they are sitting out of this edition. But we’ll get to that later. Up first is a look at how the last prediction fared.

That previous outlook called for 2-6 inches of snow from the 24th to the 26th. If all five fell in range, that would be a Bull’s Eye. Three or four in range would be On Target. Here are the totals:

Albany: Trace
Binghamton: 4.4
Buffalo: 1.0
Rochester: 4.0
Syracuse: 4.3

Three out of five were in range, so that’s On Target.

With that, the average moves up slightly to 0.9, just below the 1.00 goal.

Now on to this edition, which, as mentioned at the top, features three of the GSB cities: Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse.

Bull’s Eye Albany, Binghamton and Syracuse will have 2-6 inches of snow from Wednesday through Thursday.
On Target Two of the three will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Whether you’re in the snow or not, be sure to enjoy the Leap Day tomorrow!

I’m continuing my effort to quickly get through the PBR portion of the forecasting features, and this time there’s actually snow involved! Before we get into that, it’s time to check out how the previous forecast fared.

The previous outlook called for less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend. All five GSB cities in range is a Bull’s Eye while 3 or 4 would be On Target. Here are the totals.

Albany: 0.3
Binghamton: 0.4
Buffalo: 0.6
Rochester: 1.5
Syracuse: 0.5

All fell in range, so that’s a Bull’s Eye!

And a very timely Bull’s Eye it is! The average is now up to 0.89, just shy of the 1.00 goal for the end of the season.

Now to try to build on that momentum with the new forecast, which involves snow totals for all GSB cities over the 3 day period.

Bull’s Eye All GSB cities will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 2-6 inches of snow from Friday through Sunday.
Complete Miss Any other result.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Before I get into the whole PBR part of the post, a couple of notes.

First off, with how little snow we’ve had this season, I think I’m going to be making alterations to my plan as we go. The idea was to have 5 months of forecasting options for 10 PBR forecasts, December through April. December was a bust, and I can’t imagine April being that much better. So now I’m going to try to squeeze in the remaining forecasts as quickly as possible. That way I can get most, if not all, of the forecasts done by the end of March. This will be forecast 5, so I have about a month and a half to get 4 or 5 more forecasts done. As a result, I’ll probably end up doing a few “little or no snowfall” forecasts…including this one.

Finally, for those of you who have just started coming to the site, I figured I’d explain just what the PBR forecasts are. Point Blank Range forecasts are predictions made generally 1-3 days in advance. All forecasts made are with complete certainty, no waffle words such as “chance of” or “likely”…and, I keep track of how the forecasts have fared. There are 3 scoring ranges with any PBR forecast: Bull’s Eye (2 points), On Target (1 point) and Complete Miss (0 points). On Target is more or less what I anticipate to happen, while a Bull’s Eye is like a bonus. The goal for the end of the season is to average “On Target”, or 1.00 when this and the Shot In The Dark forecast results are combined. SITD forecasts are like PBRs, except done monthly and double points.

With that out of the way, let’s get into how the last forecast fared. That called for a snowfall totals to range between 1-6 inches for the 11th and 12th. If all five GSB cities were in range, that’s a Bull’s Eye. On Target was a majority of the GSB cities in range. Here are the two day totals:

Albany: 0.2
Binghamton: 3.3
Buffalo: 4.0
Rochester: 15.3
Syracuse: 3.9

Rochester blew the forecast away, due to 10.3 inches falling on Sunday. Amazingly enough, that was not a record for the date. That belongs to 1910, in which 16 inches fell. Despite this, and Albany going under an inch, the forecast still managed to fall in the On Target category.

As mentioned up top, this is a “little snow” forecast. With the snow event well to the south, I am not anticipating much snowfall for the GSB cities this weekend.

Bull’s Eye All GSB cities will have less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have less than 2 inches of snow for the weekend.
Complete Miss Any other result.

It’s time for another edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts. This is the 4th of the season, so I am a little bit behind where I’d like to be at this point. I may need to start forecasting other variables than just snow, but I really wanted to avoid doing that this season. We’ll see as the season continues.

The last PBR forecast called for snow of 1-5 inches from January 28th to the 29th. If all five are in range, it’s a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 in range is On Target. Here’s how they fared:

Albany: 0.0
Binghamton: 1.4
Buffalo: 5.3
Rochester: 4.8
Syracuse: 0.7

Only Binghamton and Rochester were in range, so that’s a Complete Miss. Buffalo and Syracuse were just off the thresholds, so this may be one of the better missed forecasts I’ve had. But a miss is still a miss, no matter how close or far it is.

That brings the average down a little. I still have 6 PBRs and 2 SITDs to get done, so there is about half left to go. But looking at the results, I’m going to have to do a little better on these PBRs to have a chance!

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone!

I don’t remember a winter quite like this one, and I’ll be doing something I didn’t think I’d ever do with these forecasts. We’ll get to that later, but first, it’s a look at the January prediction.

Fore January, I was expecting below average snowfall. If all 5 cities were below average, that would be a Bull’s Eye. 3 or 4 would be On Target. Below are the totals with average in parenthesis.

Albany: 7.5 (17.6)
Binghamton: 17.2 (22.2)
Buffalo: 20.8 (25.3)
Rochester: 19.9 (28.2)
Syracuse: 24.6 (34.0)

All five were below average, Bull’s Eye! Let’s check the standings. Remember that with the SITD forecasts, a Bull’s Eye is worth 4 points.

Still not at the 1.00 goal, but I’m getting there. I’m pretty sure the latest PBR was a Complete Miss, but the next Point Blank Range edition will show that result. Either way, I’m doing a bit better now than I was at the last forecast update.

With that out of the way, time for the February outlook, and for what I believe is a first for me, it’s basically a repeat of last month! Hey, if it keeps working, keep using it, right?

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 has 10 inches or more below average, snowfall for February.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for February.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great February everyone!