Shot In The Dark Forecasts: March 2011

Posted by Stephen on March 6, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

I’d like to say that the season is wrapping up, but seeing forecasts of a foot of snow on tv and online make me want to hold off on that. More on that later, but first, it’s a look back at the February forecast.

That forecast involved snowfall totals for Rochester and Syracuse. Below are their seasonal totals that were recorded at the end of February.

Rochester: 112.0
Syracuse: 160.3

Bull’s Eye: Rochester reaches 100, and Syracuse hits 150, by the end of the month.
On Target: Rochester reaches 100 by the end of the month.
Complete Miss: Rochester stays under 100 at the end of the month.

It’s a Bull’s Eye with both cities reaching the respective marks.

It turned out to be a great month for me. This Bull’s Eye, combined with an On Target at GSG, brings my average up to 1.25. My intention at the beginning of the season was to make March the final SITD forecast. However, I have two forecasts that I’d like to do. So, the new plan is to have this one go for the month, and in a few weeks I will post the final one. This would give me 5 forecast periods, including the one done to start the season.

On that note, it’s time for the March forecast. All the GSB cities are above their averages for the entire season, with more snow on the way. In an above average season, I just can’t bring myself to forecast a below average March.

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities will have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Three GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss: Two or less GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.

Here are the averages for March for each city.
Albany: 10.9
Binghamton: 14.2
Buffalo: 12.4
Rochester: 16.6
Syracuse: 18.8

Remember to check out the Golden Snowball site for the SITD Forecast over there!

2010-11 is 10th snowiest season in Syracuse.

Posted by Stephen on February 26, 2011
Posted in: records, syracuse snow.

The latest snowstorm has pushed this season to the 10th snowiest season on record for Syracuse (157 inches), overtaking the 2002-03 season (153.2) for that spot. The current 9th place season is 1970-71, with 157.2 inches. I would imagine this season will move past that one today. Below are the top 10 snowiest seasons for Syracuse.

1. 1992-93 (192.1)
2. 2000-01 (191.9)
3. 2003-04 (181.3)
4. 1995-96 (170.9)
5. 1991-92 (166.9)
6. 1993-94 (163.8)
7. 1989-90 (162.0)
8. 1977-78 (161.2)
9. 1970-71 (157.2)
10. 2010-11 (157.0 so far)

In case you were wondering, Syracuse’s least snowiest season on record was 2001-02, with 59.4 inches.

As for the other GSB cities, below are the rankings for this season, since 1951-52 (the earliest season that data was available for all 5 cities).

Albany: 19th
Binghamton: 20th
Buffalo: 31st
Rochester: 21st

All of them, especially Buffalo, have a ways to go to reach their respective top 10. But, there still is plenty of time in the season, so maybe a few more of them can get toward the top of their snow piles!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Feb. 25-27, 2011

Posted by Stephen on February 24, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

I could see some unknown green stuff where the white lawn used to be. That must mean it’s time for another snow storm! I’m sure most in upstate NY region already know about the upcoming storm, for which I will be forecasting for Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. Before I get into that, it’s a look back at the last forecast.

That last forecast featured snowfall amounts for the GSB cities. Here is their totals for the 20th and 21st.

Albany: 3.1
Binghamton: 4.7
Buffalo: 2.5
Rochester: 3.1
Syracuse: 1.8

Bull’s Eye: Syracuse’s snowfall total is higher than the combined total of the other 4 GSB cities.
On Target: Syracuse’s snowfall total is higher than any other GSB city.
Complete Miss: At least one GSB city has more snow than Syracuse.

Um…yeah. I’m just going to let that one speak for itself.

That Complete Miss along with the On Target forecast over on GSG made it a bit of a tough weekend. Once again, I have fallen below the 1.00 goal, now sitting at 0.92. There are now 4 weeks of forecasts left to reach that threshold.

To get there, I need a strong finish here, so let’s start it up this weekend! As mentioned at the beginning, this focuses on the trio of Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. The big story is the Friday storm, and for good reason. Including that into the weekend, I see the three getting at least 8 inches, with at least one possibly getting a foot.

Bull’s Eye: All three get at least 8 inches, with at least one getting a foot, of snow this weekend.
On Target: All three get at least 8 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: At least one of the three gets under 8 inches of snow.

Have a great weekend, and remember to check out the forecast on Golden Snow Globe as well!

Albany Skates Past Average Seasonal Snowfall

Posted by The Snowman on February 24, 2011
Posted in: Uncategorized.

I’m having a hard time believing that Albany has a headline here at Golden Snowball. That doesn’t happen too often but it’s well deserved. They are officially past their annual/seasonal snowfall for the season with at least another month to go. Way to go Albany. I wonder if they can catch Buffalo.

Speaking of Buffalo they really need to get something going because Binghamton is right behind them on the snow hill. They are the two cities that are closest to each other right now. First place Syracuse is starting to look like a safe bet butttt….Hey, ya never know. Second place is definitely still up for grabs. I don’t think Albany has much of a chance but it’s a 3 way race right now between Rochester, Buffalo and Binghamton. As for the fat rats errr I mean groundhogs prediction, I’m still not buying it ;).

Quality Funny St Patricks Day T-Shirts and Sweatshirts

Hey, Have a Super Weekend All!

Rochester Goes Over Their Total Seasonal Snowfall

Posted by The Snowman on February 21, 2011
Posted in: Uncategorized.

Way to go Rochester. Rochester is showing just enough new snow now to put them over their seasonal snow totals. All the snow hasn’t been reported for the overnight so most likely they will add to it. Still waiting on the NOAA updates to see if Albany and Binghamton hit their average snow totals. If so that will make 4 out of 5 of the cities above average for the season with the exception of Buffalo.

I feel bad for Buffalo for the fact that the snow has been all around them this season and I’m sure several places around the area got some decent snowfall. That’s how it all plays out sometimes though. My guess is that Syracuse is over the 150 inch mark with the over night snow that hasn’t been reported yet. The big question stays alive, can they hit the well sought after 200 inch mark this season? We’ll have to wait and see 🙂

The National snowiest city stats have finally been updated. Rochester managed to slip into 2nd place in that contest. You can check those stats out at The Golden Snow Globe site.

Have a Fantastic Week All!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Feb. 20-21, 2011

Posted by Stephen on February 19, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

I wanted to get this done yesterday, but do to some difficulties, which are explained in more detail over on Golden Snow Globe, I was unable to get it done. That is the problem with waiting for verification sometimes, but that is the nature of it when trying to show how right (or wrong) a prediction was.

Last forecast involved temperatures, a comparison between highs and lows. Below are nighttime lows on Thursday (6pm to 6am) with Wednesday’s highs in parenthesis.

Albany: 37 (39)
Binghamton: 46 (41)
Buffalo: 49 (44)
Rochester: 48 (44)
Syracuse: 40 (41)

Bull’s Eye: All GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.
On Target: 3 or 4 GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.
Complete Miss: 2 or fewer GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.

With 3 out of the 5 having warmer Thursday night lows than Wednesday highs, the forecast is On Target.

A pretty solid week for me, including the Bull’s Eye on GSG, pushes my total to 10 points from 10 forecasts, a 1.00 average. That is exactly the goal set at the beginning of the season. We’ve reached the halfway point for the forecasts, and I’d like to have it all wrapped up at the end of March.

Now on to this forecast. As I mentioned earlier, I wanted to get it done yesterday as it was a comparison with Syracuse snowfall and the other GSB cities. I still believe the same idea will work out for Sunday and Monday.

Bull’s Eye: Syracuse’s snowfall total is higher than the combined total of the other 4 GSB cities.
On Target: Syracuse’s snowfall total is higher than any other GSB city.
Complete Miss: At least one GSB city has more snow than Syracuse.

Have a great weekend everyone, and remember to check out the forecast over on Golden Snow Globe.