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So, THAT’S what snow looks like

Posted by Stephen on December 18, 2011
Posted in: new york snow contest, syracuse snow.

Yesterday was the end of a few streaks for Syracuse as the official count for the day was exactly 1 inch. It had been almost 270 days since Syracuse last had at least an inch of snowfall, that’s the 5th longest streak since 1902! The longest such streak was in 2009, at 287 days. Credit to syracuse.com.

In addition, it is tied for the 2nd latest inch of snowfall in a season since 1902. The other time that the first inch of snowfall took place on December 17th was in 1922! The latest was back in 1998, when it wasn’t until December 22nd when an inch of snow finally fell in Syracuse. Thanks to Julia Weiden from WSYR-TV for the information.

According to stats that I have been able to find on the NWS climate page, Syracuse’s least snowy December (since 1950) was in 1994, with 5.9 inches. As of yesterday, this December stands at 1.1 inches. With under 2 weeks left in the month, it seems like this December will be very close to breaking the record. Though, at this point all it takes is one semi-decent storm to push this month over the 6 inch total mark.

While the snow isn’t covering much of anything (I can still see grass peaking out of the snow), it is a start. One that Syracuse very much needs considering its last place standing.

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: December 2011

Posted by Stephen on December 5, 2011
Posted in: forecasts. Tagged: .

It’s that time again! Well, actually, that time was a few days ago, but after a bit of a delay, I’m finally ready for the snow season. With that comes the forecasts. First a bit of a reminder of what exactly is going on for those new to this, along with a few changes.

At times throughout the season, I will prepare different types of forecasts. There will be 10 short term forecasts (about 2-3 days) called Point Blank Range and 5 long term (about a month) called Shot In The Dark. The idea behind each forecast is to be a bit different than you’d see in most forecasts on TV. What does that mean? No waffle words like “chance of” or “likely” when I make a forecast, it will be definitive. Also, at the beginning of each following forecast, I will look back and see how the forecast fared. Each forecast will fall into one of three categories: Bull’s Eye, On Target or Complete Miss.

Now on to the changes for this season. First off, I will not be doing a season outlook. Instead, I will be doing a long term forecast for 5 months, December through April. Secondly, the two sites, Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe, will be kept separate. In previous years, I’d try to find something that would work for both New York State and elsewhere at the same time. More often than not, I’d only be able to have a snow forecast for one area. So this gives me more flexibility. If I need to make a GSB forecast on a Tuesday and a GSG forecast on a Friday, or if it’s weeks in between, then that would work this year. And finally, I’m doubling the points for the Shot In The Dark forecasts. So now it’s 4 points for a Bull’s Eye, 2 for On Target and 0 for a Complete Miss. The goal for the end of the season will remain the same: 1.00 average or better (it worked out that even with this change my forecasts last season didn’t mean the 1.00 mark, so that is the goal again this season).

Now that’s out of the way, it’s time for the first Shot In The Dark Forecast of the season!

The “big 3” of Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse are currently behind Albany and Binghamton in the early stages of the snow race. Of course that will not last once the lake effect machine comes into play. It wouldn’t surprise me if the standings flipped at the end of the month, so that’s what I’m going with for this month.

Bull’s Eye: The standings at the end of the month will be Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Binghamton, Albany.
On Target: Three of the cities end up in their forecasted position.
Complete Miss: 2 or fewer cities end up in their forecasted position.

Have a great week everyone!

New averages for GSB cities

Posted by Stephen on October 30, 2011
Posted in: new york snow contest.

With another decade complete, the National Weather Service has updated the climate averages, which include daily high and low temperatures, and what we’re all interested in here, daily and seasonal snowfall. Because of international agreement, these averages use 30 years of data, the 3 most recently completed decades. Since the beginning of our Golden Snowball website, we have been using the averages from 1971-2000. However, soon we will be using the “new” averages, which are from 1981-2010. I’ll have to look into the “true” ending for snowfall when I get a chance as the snowfall season goes from July-June, which is different than basically every other stat. My guess is when they compute the snowfall averages, they use the snowfall for each year (1990), rather than each season (July 1990-June 1991).

I figured I’d take a look at the “old” averages and compare them with the “new” ones.

City 1971-2000 1981-2010
Albany 62.6 59.1
Binghamton 81 83.4
Buffalo 97 94.7
Rochester 100.3 99.5
Syracuse 121.1 123.8

Of the 5 GSB cities, only Binghamton and Syracuse’s averages have gone up. Syracuse is now the only city with an average of 100 or more, as Rochester falls a half an inch short at 99.5. The biggest difference between the averages is Albany’s, a decrease in 3.5 inches.

You may have noticed that I keep calling these averages, while most other people call them normals. That is because I generally try to avoid using “normal” when talking about statistics like these. To me, “normal” gives the false impression that the average is what you should expect, what “normally” happens. As any of the long time residents in the GSB cities know, the only thing normal about our winters is their abnormality.

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011 Wrap Up

Posted by Stephen on May 29, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

Yes, I know, it’s the end of May, not really time to be thinking about snow right now. That’s why now is the perfect time to have the SITD Wrap Up!

Up first is the April forecast, which involved rankings for the five GSB cities. Below are the rankings as of the end of April, with the range I had given them in parenthesis.

Albany: 9th (5-9)
Binghamton: 6th (3-6)
Buffalo: 15th (13-19)
Rochester: 12th (8-12)
Syracuse: 4th (3-4)

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities are within the given ranges.
On Target: Three or four are in the given ranges.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the given ranges.

All five were in range, with 4 of them being just making it. That’s a Bull’s Eye!

Finally, it’s the Season outlook, which was made in the beginning of January. It involved the rankings of the five cities in this contest. Below are the cities’ placements with my predicted rank in parenthesis.

1. Syracuse (1)
2. Rochester (2)
3. Binghamton (3)
4. Buffalo (4)
5. Albany (5)

Bull’s Eye: The standings at the end of April will be Syracuse, Rochester, Binghamton, Buffalo and Albany.
On Target: Three are in the forecast spots.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the forecast spots.

All five were in the position I had predicted, so that is another Bull’s Eye!

Unfortunately, these two Bull’s Eye forecasts were not enough to reach my 1.00 goal. The April and Season forecasts over on GSG were Complete Miss outlooks, so my average for the season is 0.90, the same as the Point Blank Range! This time, it was the GSG forecasts that let me down, as only one forecast was a Bull’s Eye while three were of the Complete Miss category. On the GSB side, three were Bull’s Eyes and two were Complete Misses.

So, the goal for next season will be the same this one, 1.00 or better.

Speaking of next season, I have some changes in mind that I’d like to get for the 2011-12 snow season. First and foremost, I got off to a late start, so I want to get the forecasts started in December and go through March instead of January through April like I did this season. Another idea floating around in my head is to have some sort of video forecast with these, instead of just text. I’ll have to play around with that during the off season. If I can get it to work, it’ll be here next season, if not, then it won’t. I don’t want to change it from text to video mid-season. All this been said, I feel like the current forecast structure is a keeper, so I will not be changing it next season.

Enjoy the off season everyone!

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011 Update

Posted by Stephen on April 10, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

Got a bit behind where I wanted the updates to be, but here it is now. In this update, I’ll be looking back at the March results, and see where the April outlook stands. It’s about 3 weeks before the SITD Wrap Up, in which the April results will be final, as well as the forecast made at the beginning of the season. The goal is 1.00, when both Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe are combined.

The March forecast involved snowfall for the month compared to the historical average. Below are the snowfall totals for the five cities, with their respective averages in parenthesis.

Albany: 8.8 (10.9)
Binghamton: 25.9 (14.2)
Buffalo: 13.3 (12.4)
Rochester: 15.1 (16.6)
Syracuse: 18.5 (18.8)

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities will have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Three GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss: Two or less GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.

I know there were some comments at the beginning of the month that basically said this was a no-brainer. Well, this season, there is no such thing as a no-brainer this season as only 2 of the 5 were above average for March.

With both GSB and GSG giving me Complete Miss outlooks for March, my average has now dropped to 0.83, below the goal of 1.00. Of the four remaining results, it looks like I’ll be needing at least 2 Bull’s Eye predictions to get to the goal.

With that in mind, here’s a look at April so far. I had ranges for where I believed each of the 5 GSB cities would be for the end of April, basically the end of the snow season. Below are their current rankings (as of the 9th), with the range I had given them in parenthesis.

Albany: 9th (5-9)
Binghamton: 6th (3-6)
Buffalo: 16th (13-19)
Rochester: 12th (8-12)
Syracuse: 4th (3-4)

Right now, all five are in the ranges I set. The best way for me to get a Bull’s Eye with this forecast is for there to be no more snow for the next few weeks. I’m sure most people would be fine with that!

Hey, have a great week everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Winter 2011 Wrap Up

Posted by Stephen on April 3, 2011
Posted in: forecasts.

With the silliness that comes with the start of April out of the way (yes, the last post was an April Fool’s Day joke!), it’s time to see just how much of a joke this season’s Point Blank Range Forecasts were.

To start, it’s a look at the final forecast of the season: temperatures, and their relation to average. Below are the number of days the GSB cities had high temperatures below average from the 29th to the 30th.

Albany: 1
Binghamton: 1
Buffalo: 2
Rochester: 2
Syracuse: 1

Bull’s Eye: All five GSB cities have below average highs both days.
On Target: All five GSB cities have below average highs in one day.
Complete Miss: Any GSB city has above average highs both days.

All five were below average on the 29th, but only Buffalo and Rochester were below average on the 30th. So, the final PBR Forecast of the season was On Target.

As a result, I do not meet the 1.00 average goal set at the beginning of the season. It was these forecasts that did me in this season, as of the 10 forecasts, only 1 was a Bull’s Eye while 5 earned the Complete Miss designation. Golden Snow Globe forecasts were almost the exact opposite: 1 was a Complete Miss while 3 were in the Bull’s Eye category. For the grand total, it’s 18 points out of 20 forecasts, a 0.90 average.

So, the goal for next season will be the same as this season: 1.00 or better.

Tomorrow, I will try to get the Shot In The Dark Forecast results in for March. The SITD have 2 forecasts waiting for verification: the April outlook and the one done back in January for the entire Winter season. I’ll try to get the full SITD wrap up done in the next few weeks.

Have a great week everyone!