Point Blank Range Forecasts: Jan. 13, 2012

Posted by Stephen on January 11, 2012
Posted in: forecasts. Tagged: .

Looks like the Upstate NY region is going to get some snow for the end of the week. Before we get into that though, it’s a look at the previous forecast.

I believed Syracuse would take the lead by at least 2 inches at the end of the 3rd, but 4 or more would be a Bull’s Eye. Syracuse did in fact take the lead…but by how much?

Syracuse: 12.5
Binghamton: 12.2

Not enough. Turns out, Syracuse got about what I thought they would, but I forgot to take Binghamton’s snowfall during that time into account. That’s quite a mistake to make when comparing the 2 cities, right? Sheesh.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.00
SITD 0 0 1 0
PBR 0 0 1 0
Total 0 0 2 0

Still looking for points of any kind. With that in mind, here’s the latest forecast:

Bull’s Eye All five GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.
On Target A majority of the GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.
Complete Miss 2 or fewer GSB cities will have 1-6 inches of snowfall by the end of Friday.

Have a great end to the work week everyone! And maybe I’ll get on the board this time!

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: January 2012

Posted by Stephen on January 9, 2012
Posted in: forecasts. Tagged: .

What’s always late and rarely great? Shot In The Dark Forecasts of course! Time to check out just how bad December’s outlook was and try to do better with January’s.

For December, I said the rankings would be flipped for a Bull’s Eye. If 3 were in the right spots, that would be On Target. Here’s how they were at the time of the forecast:
Albany
Binghamton
Syracuse
Rochester
Buffalo

So, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Binghamton, Albany is the order I’m looking for…here’s how it was at the end of December…

Binghamton 9.9
Syracuse 7.2
Albany 6.1
Rochester 5.2
Buffalo 3.8

I would have been better off saying the rankings would remain the same as none of the cities ended up in their predicted spot. I have a feeling it’s going to be that kind of season.

GSB Forecast Results
Forecasts Bull’s Eye On Target Complete Miss Points
Average: 0.00
SITD 0 0 1 0
PBR 0 0 0 0
Total 0 0 1 0

With that out of the way, time for the January outlook, and it may be the biggest “no duh!” one ever! Hey, at this point, I need as many points as I can get to make up for that dud of a forecast.

Bull’s Eye: All five cities have below average, or at least 1 is a foot or more below average, snowfall for January.
On Target: A majority of the cities have below average snowfall for January.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Have a great January everyone!

Syracuse Takes the Lead by A Snow Flake

Posted by The Snowman on January 4, 2012
Posted in: new york snow contest.

Well it’s late and I figured I would take a look at the latest snow stats.  I was surprised to see Syracuse sneak into the lead by just 0.1 of an inch.  They also finally slipped past the one foot mark in snowfall for the season.  I would normally say Whoooo Hoooo but come on now, it’s January 4th.  Enough said for now and we’ll update the stats as we get them.

For those of us missing the big snow, here is and
old family video of The Blizzard of 1966

The little kid in the brown coat and hat is me 🙂


Have a great day all 😉

Binghamton is First City to Hit a Foot of Snow

Posted by The Snowman on January 3, 2012
Posted in: binghamton snow, golden snowball contest.

It’s gonna be close as far as Stephen’s point blank forecast goes but I think if I were him I may want to do a snow dance and fast. 😉  See his predictions below!  Binghamton, the southern most city in the Golden Snowball contest is the first city to receive 12 inches of snow.  I was thinking a few of the cites would have hit that with what was in the forecast but that turned out to be a bust for all of the GSB cities.

It still looks like a couple of the cities can add to their totals but it’s not looking like a whole lot unless the LES gets going again.  For now Binghamton is looking pretty good to hold on to the lead for at least the overnight.

I saw my neighbor Jim loading his snowmobile onto his truck yesterday afternoon.  I’m guessing he wasn’t heading to Bingo but probably up north around Tug HIll or some place close to there where it looked like the snow was coming down.  Maybe Mexico?  Sooner or later it has to hit.  Err, it does have to snow sooner or later doesn’t it?  In the mean time head north my snow loving friends, head north 🙂

Have a GREAT Week All!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Jan. 3, 2012

Posted by Stephen on January 1, 2012
Posted in: forecasts. Tagged: .

Happy New Year everyone!

It was a very quiet December, so much so that I ended up having no Point Blank Range Forecasts for the entire month. We’re starting January, and 2012 for that matter, off with a bang though!

Those who are familiar with my PBR Forecasts know that I try to include several cities in these. But with the slow start to the season, I’m at the point where I just want to get forecasts done, even if that means going with just one city.

The first PBR forecast involves Syracuse, as there is the potential for lake effect snow Monday night into Tuesday. At last check, Syracuse is behind Binghamton by 2.7 inches, and I believe they will make that up with his storm.

Bull’s Eye: Syracuse takes the lead by 4 or more inches at the end of Tuesday.
On Target: Syracuse takes the lead by 2 to 4 inches at the end of Tuesday.
Complete Miss: Syracuse takes the lead by 2 or fewer inches, or trails, at the end of Tuesday.

Have a great week, and here’s to a great 2012!

Least Snowiest Decembers for GSB cities

Posted by Stephen on December 29, 2011
Posted in: Golden Snowball.

As we all know, it has been a very quiet month snow-wise this December. In fact, the city with the most snow this month is Binghamton, with 6.7 inches. The least snowiest December among the five cities is Albany, with less than an inch. This got us thinking…what are the top 5 least snowy Decembers for each of the GSB cities? After a little bit of research, here they are!

Albany:
Trace (1928 and 1895)
0.3 (2006)
0.5 (1931)
0.6 (1943)

Binghamton:
4.0 (1994)
4.2 (2006)
4.7 (1957)
5.4 (1965)
6.2 (1998)

Buffalo:
1.1 (1891 and 1889)
1.7 (1943)
2.9 (1931)
3.4 (1896)

Rochester:
2.6 (1939 and 1928)
4.1 (1932)
4.3 (1936)
4.7 (1891)

Syracuse:
2.7 (1931)
2.8 (1947)
3.4 (1932)
5.2 (1924)
5.9 (1994)

As some of our readers probably know, when I did the seasonal snow rankings last Winter, I used the 1951-52 season as a starting point. That was to sort of make it an even playing field as that was the first season available with data for all five GSB cities. One of the reasons was to compare rankings by city (as an example: City A is having their 15th snowiest season, while City B is at their 26th). It wouldn’t be “fair” if one city’s records went back 50 years while another one went back 100 years or more. This time around, I decided to go with all available seasons. Since I’m not comparing each other’s rankings (that might come later) with each other, I believed this to be the way to go. As such, I should mention that the period of record can vary greatly city to city. Albany (1874), Buffalo (1871) and Rochester (1871) have a much earlier starting point than Binghamton (1951) and, to a lesser extent, Syracuse (1902).

By the way, with 4.2 inches of snow so far, Rochester could crack the top 5 of their least snowiest seasons! A half an inch or less is what it’ll take these last few days of the month.